Houston vs. Oregon State Betting Predictions

NCAAB March Madness
Houston vs. Oregon State NCAA Basketball

No. 12 seed Oregon State continues its great tournament run against a surging No. 2 seed Houston team. The Cougars are too strong defensively, and have too many offensive weapons for the Beavers to make it to the Final Four.

Houston vs. Oregon State Betting Odds

Oregon State’s tournament run has featured wins over Tennessee, Oklahoma State and on Saturday, Loyola Chicago. They beat the Ramblers 65-58 Saturday to become only the second 12-seed ever to advance to the Elite 8. Should they beat Houston on Monday, they will become the first 12-seed to ever advance to a Final Four.

Senior guard Ethan Thompson has 22 points and 4 assists in the Beaver’s Saturday win, and Warith Alatishe had 10 points and 11 rebounds. The Beavers held Loyola Chicago to 21.1 percent shooting from 3.

Thompson leads the Beavers in scoring this season with 15.8 points per game on 40.8 percent shooting. Alatishe is shooting a team-leading 51.1 percent from the field (9.6 PPG), and also leads the Beavers with 8.7 rebounds per game. The 6’7’’ forward also has 45 blocks.

The Beavers, picked to finish last in the preseason Pac-12 poll, earned an automatic bid to the NCAAs when they won the Pac-12 tournament 70-68 against Colorado on 3/13.

Houston beat Syracuse 62-46 Saturday to advance, holding the Orange to 21 percent shooting from 3-point range. Syracuse’s Buddy Boheim, son of legendary coach Jim Boheim, came into the game averaging 28.3 points per game (58.3% from 3) through four games that included Syracuse’s Atlantic Coast tournament and NCAA contests. The Cougars held him to just 12 points, including 1-for-9 from behind the arc.

The Cougars got 14 points from Quentin Grimes, 13 points and 10 rebounds from Justin Gorham, and nine points, eight rebounds and eight assists from DeJon Jarreau.

The Cougars’ Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser, and DeJon Jarreau are all averaging double-digit point totals per game this season, with Grimes leading the way (18.0 PPG). Oregon State will also have to contend with Justin Gorham, who leads the Cougars with a 50.6 percent shooting percentage from the field on 8.6 points per game. Jerrau is averaging 10.8 points per game this season on a team-leading 4.8 assists per game. He suffered a bruised hip in Houston’s first round win over Rutgers, but played 34 minutes against Syracuse, and appears to have recovered.

When Oregon State isn’t dealing with the Cougars’ offensive threats, they’ll have to battle past their defense to put up points and get rebounds. The Cougars are holding opponents to 57.5 points per game this season (good for second amongst Division I teams), while averaging 40.9 rebounds per game. Houston routinely dominates its opponents on the glass, and out rebounded Syracuse 41-20 on Saturday. Including their tournament wins, The Cougars have won 10 straight games and 12 of their last 13.

The legal March Madness betting sites in New Jersey have Houston listed as 8.5 point favorites. The Cougars are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games. I think their defense will wear Oregon State down like they’ve done just about every other opponent this season, while Grimes and company will put up enough points to keep Oregon State at a distance. I expect Houston to cover.

If you’re looking for a game parlay, I like Houston and Under 139 at +138 odds (888Sport). The Cougars’ defense is holding opponents to under 30% shooting from 3 this season, and opponents haven’t managed to score more than 60 points against them through three tournament games so far.

For player-specific bets, I like Quentin Grimes over 16.5 points at -113 odds (888Sport). Grimes has had 18 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.

Houston Oregon State
888Sport
-360 +260
Sugar House
-315 +240
FanDuel
-355 +285

My Prediction

Houston-8.5 Points

The Cougars use their stifling defense to stop a Beavers teams that has exceeded all expectations, but doesn’t have quite enough to get to the Final Four.

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Conor Allen lives in the San Francisco Bay Area where he roots passionately for the 49ers, Warriors and the UC Berkeley Golden Bear football team. After previously spending several years in the Boston area he is also not ashamed to root for the Patriots. Conor currently writes about college basketball for UsaLegalBetting and blogs about a variety of sports, including the NFL at https://herecomestheblitz8.blogspot.com. He enjoys performing improv comedy and trail running in his spare time.

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