No. 7 seed Florida faces a tough, 15th seeded Oral Roberts team that knocked off Ohio State Friday in the first big upset of the tournament. This game has a lot of upset potential, but I expect Florida to use their depth and tournament experience to win another game that will be close all the way to the end.
The 15th seeded Golden Eagles (17-10) shocked No. 2 seed Ohio State on Friday 75-72 in overtime. It was their first NCAA Tournament win since 1974. Forward Kevin Obanor led Oral Roberts with 30 points and 11 rebounds in the game as the Golden Eagles became just the ninth 15th seed to win in the first round in tournament history. The 6’8’’ Obanor leads the team in rebounds (9.5), and is scoring 18.6 PPG while shooting 46.4% from 3. Guard Max Abmas is the Golden Eagle’s top scorer (24.5 PPG) and assist leader (3.7). Abmas scored 29 points in their win Friday. The Golden Eagles are averaging 81.5 points per game this season and are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country at 82.6%. Florida lost 78-66 to Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament on 3/12, then needed overtime to beat Virginia tech 75-70 on Friday. Forward Colin Castleton had 19 points and 14 rebounds in the win, while guard Tre Mann hit a step-back 3-pointer with 23 seconds left in overtime to seal the victory. Mann finished with 14 points and leads the team in scoring (15.9 PPG) and assists (3.4) this season. Florida was without sophomore forward Omar Payne, who was held out of the game by coach Mike White following his ejection from the SEC tournament game against Tennessee for a flagrant foul. Payne elbowed Tennessee forward John Fulkerson, resulting in a facial fracture and a concussion for the Vols’ senior. It’s still undetermined whether the 6-foot-10 Payne (3.7 PPG) (3.2 RPG) will play on Sunday. Also undetermined for Sunday is guard Tyree Appleby, who needed stitches after taking an elbow to the forehead while defending Virginia Tech forward Keve Aluma in the second half of Florida’s win. Coming into the game, Appeby was Florida’s third leading scorer at 11.4 PPG. This is another game that has the potential for an upset. Oral Roberts has won six straight, while Florida is 5-5 in it’s last 10 games and will possibly be missing two key players. Florida turns the ball over too much, averaging 14.8 a game, and I think this confident Golden Eagles team will play them tough. If Omar Payne is out for a second game, it will also be an opportunity for the Golden Eagles to be more aggressive attacking the rim. All that said, I think the Gators are too strong offensively to lose this game. They can also hold their own defensively, limiting opponents to 30.5% shooting from beyond the arc this season. They’ll need to continue that trend against the Golden Eagles, who are shooting 38.6% from 3. The legal sports betting sites in New Jersey have Florida as 8.5 point favorites. I think it will be too close of a game to bet comfortably on that spread. I’m looking at some game parlays for this matchup, including Florida and Over 148 at +140 odds (888Sport and Sugar House). With all of the Gators offensive weapons coupled with Oral Robert’s averaging over 80 points a game, this could easily be a high scoring affair.
Florida -8.5 Points Even if they only manage to only get Omar Payne back for the game, I think Florida can hold off this tough Oral Roberts team. The Gators have too many offensive weapons and more tournament experience than the Golden Eagles. Florida gets another close win and hopes that Tyree Appelby will be at full strength for the rest of the tournament.
