March Madness 2021 is finally here! No.10 seed Virginia Tech takes on No. 7 seed Florida Friday in what should be a great opening round battle between two top ten seeds. Both teams are evenly matched and are coming off tough conference tournament losses. I expect Florida to get a close win.
The Hokies opened their season winning eight of nine, but their final two regular season games were canceled due to contact tracing, and they suffered an 81-73 loss at the hands of North Carolina in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament last Thursday. Virginia Tech finished the regular season ranked No. 25. Forward Kyle Aluma leads the team in scoring at 15.6 ppg and guard Tyrece Redford is a sharpshooter from 3, finishing the regular season shooting 56% from beyond the arc. The 6’9’ Junior Aluma is also a defensive force around the rim; several of his blocks this season have been highlight reel material. Overall he finished the season with 28 blocks and 14 steals. Florida also started strong this season, winning five of six, but they lost 78-66 to Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament, their second loss to the Volunteers in six days. The Gators are the SEC’s best shooting team, but shot only 35.6% from the field against Tennessee. Forward Omar Payne was also ejected from the game for a flagrant foul on Vols’ forward John Fulkerson. The No. 29 Gators are led by guard Tre Mann (16.0 ppg), while forward Colin Castleton is shooting 58.1% from the field. Castleton also leads the team with 5.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, Virginia Tech has a slight edge, giving up 65.ppg to Florida’s 69.8, though the Gators are holding opponents to 30.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Florida has made 22 tournament appearances and lost in the second round to Michigan in 2019. Virginia Tech is making its 12th tournament appearance, losing to Duke in the semifinals in 2019 in their most recent appearance. These teams are closely matched offensively and defensively, so it doesn’t surprise me that the legal sports betting sites in New Jersey have Florida listed at -1. That’s too close for me to feel comfortable placing a money line bet on this game. The total is at 137.5, and I think the best value comes in taking the Over at -106 odds. Both teams are averaging nearly 75 points a game and both are coming off losses to end otherwise strong seasons. I think they’ll come out playing aggressive; both teams are eager to prove that they are better than the rankings they were saddled with to end the regular season. Study the stats and it’s almost maddening how close these teams are offensively. Florida has a slight edge in one very important category: free throw percentage. The Gators are shooting a full seven percentage points better than Virginia Tech.
My Prediction Florida -1 Florida gets a close win and erases the bad taste of the Sec tourney loss to Tennessee.
