Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Predictions

buccaneers vs giants nfl season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Predictions

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have finally settled into a groove with Tom Brady at quarterback, and look every bit the Super Bowl contender many believed them to be before the season. The New York Giants have had some glimpses of positivity in the first year under Joe Judge, but last week’s blown fourth-quarter lead has to sting. New York’s offense is still a work in progress with Daniel Jones under center, so I’ll lean on the in-form Buccaneers in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Odds

After the first month of inconsistency, the Buccaneers have found an offensive system that is working for them. They have scored at least 38 points in three of the past four weeks and Brady has settled into a rhythm with 12 touchdown passes to just one interception in the past four games. The key to Brady’s success has been the emergence of Ronald Jones II as a reliable rushing option to provide the balance to Tampa Bay’s offense that it didn’t have in the past. Jones is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and he’s scored four rushing touchdowns this season, though he had a three-game streak of 100-yard games snapped last week. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay ranks in the top 10 in both scoring and total defense while leading the league in rushing defense. The Buccaneers rank fourth in the league by allowing opponents to score on just 29.6 percent of their offensive drives and are sixth by forcing turnovers on nearly 15 percent of opponents’ possessions.

New York had a nice string of relative success against its division the past three weeks and had a chance to win all three games. Now, though, they have to face the rest of the league and that starts with this home game with Tampa Bay. The Giants offense never scored more than 16 points or gained more than 300 yards in any of their four non-division games. The Giants rank 30th in terms of passing yards and touchdowns, rank 31st in first downs and more importantly 26th with a 34-percent scoring percentage. Jones has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and barely averaging more than 200 passing yards per game. Defensively, the Giants stood strong against the weaker offenses they have faced, but struggled with the better ones. They are decidedly average in most statistical categories and rank in the middle of the pack in both points allowed and yards allowed.

When it comes to betting the point totals in this game, the props on the two teams are quite easy to predict. The Giants struggle to score 20 points most weeks, so scoring 17 this week seems like an uphill climb; I’ll take New York to score less than 17 points for -116 odds. On the other side, the Giants defense is not elite and we’ve seen good offenses be able to pick them apart. The Buccaneers are finally seeing the best out of Brady in the passing game and Tampa Bay’s strong rushing attack is bringing balance. Tampa Bay should eclipse the 28 points set for them by the New Jersey online sports betting sites, so I’ll take the over 28 points for the Buccaneers at -114 odds. The bigger question is the combined over/under of 46 points for this game given the discrepancy in offenses. It’ll be close, but I’m going slightly under 46 points combined for -112 odds.

Buccaneers to win

The Buccaneers are 10-point favorites at the NFL betting sites in New Jersey and that is a bit of a surprise to me. Granted the game is in primetime at the Meadowlands, but this is a giant mismatch between the second-worst offense in the NFL and one of the best defenses in the league. The Giants have struggled to score points against good defenses and now they have to do it against an elite unit. As good as the Giants have been on defense, Tampa Bay is finding a good groove on offense right now with 38 or more points in each of the past two weeks. I’m confident enough that this will be at least a three-score game, so I’m picking the Buccaneers laying 17.5 points at +200 odds.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

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