Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Predictions

Chiefs at Bills NFL
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Predictions

What was supposed to be a marquee matchup of unbeaten squads was squashed last week when both the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills dropped their first game of the season. The Chiefs at least looked competitive against the Raiders while the Bills were not prepared for their special Tuesday night matchup with Tennessee. The losses should be wake-up calls for both teams in a unique Monday night game, but Kansas City has far less to fix than Buffalo and should be able to right the ship.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Kansas City’s defense has always had a bend-but-don’t-break approach, but that backfired on the Chiefs last week against Las Vegas. The Raiders put up almost 500 yards of offense on the Chiefs and cashed in on their chances around the red zone to upset the defending Super Bowl champions. What was nearly as important is the Raiders were able to apply some pressure on Mahomes and sack him three times, something Buffalo can also do with its front four. Where the Chiefs will have an advantage is the use of Tyreek Hill as a running option, which will exploit Buffalo’s struggles last week against the Titans at setting and maintaining an edge. Kansas City will also likely give up more yards to the Bills, but Buffalo’s running game isn’t nearly as strong as Las Vegas’ so the Chiefs will dial up the heat to force the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands early.

Last week was one of those games where Buffalo can just rip up the tape and burn it. The Bills looked nothing like the team that won its first four games in that demolition at Tennessee, as the defense failed to slow down anyone all night. Some of that has to do with injuries to linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre White, the latter of whom was an All-Pro last season. However, Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had the same bite for most of the season, and that is something the coaching staff will need to address at some point. The timelier question is how will Allen respond to a rough outing where he did not look like the same quarterback who lit the league on fire in the first four weeks. Allen didn’t seem as comfortable in the pocket and he started to force some throws he wasn’t trying to make earlier in the season. The Bills suffered from a case of the drops, which didn’t help Allen, but he also threw his first non-deflected interception of the season and forced the ball to Stefon Diggs in traffic several times where the pass could have – and probably should have – been picked. Both sides of the ball will need to be much better against Kansas City for Buffalo to stand a chance.

The NFL betting sites in New Jersey are expecting this to be a high-scoring contest, and it’s hard to argue against that with two potent offenses. The over/under on this game is set at 57.5 points, and that might be underselling it a little bit. Both teams have had their fair share of defensive struggles and both teams also have offenses that can score points quickly and efficiently. I could easily see both teams getting to 30 points in this game, so I’ll take a risk and take the over 63.5 total points for +180 odds in order to add more value to the wager.

Chiefs to win

Once again, the New Jersey online sports betting sites have honed in on a really good spread. The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites and it’s hard to argue that line at the moment. Buffalo returns home for a special primetime game, and those have always tended to be really tight games, that never go Buffalo’s way. The Bills rarely put up a dud at home on Monday night, so I expect we’ll see a more-focused team come out to play the Chiefs. However, the Bills’ defense is still in shambles due to some key injuries and if those players aren’t healthy, it will be a long night. However, all signs point to Milano and White being ready to go, which will be a major boost in slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City should win the game, but I think a field goal will be the difference, so I’ll take the Bills plus the 4.5 points at -105 odds and the Chiefs to win by 13 points or fewer at +130 odds.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

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