Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Predictions

Chiefs at Broncos NFL
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Predictions

The Denver Broncos won last week behind a strong defense and a fantastic kicker, but that likely won’t work this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ran over Buffalo last week and have an offense that can only improve if Le’Veon Bell is able to play this week. Denver’s defense took advantage of a shorthanded Patriots offense, and it has no such luck this week with Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

What impressed me most about Monday night’s win over Buffalo was how efficient Kansas City was in running the ball against the Bills. If the Chiefs are able to add a ferocious rushing attack to the passing game led by Patrick Mahomes, it will be tough to slow down the Chiefs this year. Mahomes has again been spectacular this season with 15 touchdowns to just one interception, even if he isn’t throwing for many yards. The emergence of the rushing attack with Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a welcome sign for the offense, and Le’Veon Bell will only help that running game as he adjusts to the offense. The issue for Kansas City is inconsistent play on defense with a deep disparity between its rushing and passing defense. The Chiefs looked sharp slowing down the Bills’ passing attack last week, but Buffalo was able to have success with its ground game. Kansas City ranks 30th in the league in rushing defense and seventh in passing defense, which better teams than Denver will be able to exploit.

Denver’s offense has looked horrid outside the one week the Broncos played the Jets. Even last week, the Broncos won despite not scoring a touchdown and Drew Lock throwing two interceptions. The Broncos have had multiple turnovers in four of their five games, which is not a formula for success in the NFL and it certainly won’t work against Kansas City. The offense has just been stale against good teams and the defending Super Bowl champions fall into that category. Denver was able to force three turnovers from New England and it’s hard to imagine he’ll do the same this week with Mahomes throwing just one interception so far this season. Kansas City has scored at least 23 points in every game and the Broncos have only scored more than 21 points just once this season, making it feel like a mismatch on both sides.

We’ll start with the obvious bet on the table, which is to take the Broncos to score less than 17 points at -106 odds. Denver’s offense is just a mess right now and even a strong rushing game likely won’t matter this week. Kansas City should be able to dare Lock to beat them with his arm and shut down the running game. The trickier question is how much Kansas City will be able to score against a strong Broncos defense. Denver hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in a game this season and that is exactly where the NFL betting sites in New Jersey have the line for the Chiefs this week. However, Kansas City should be able to take advantage of Denver’s secondary issues to score points. So I’ll take the Chiefs to score more than 28 points at -108 odds.

Chiefs to win

Kansas City is the second-largest favorite on the board this week at 9.5 points over Denver. That is a lot of points for one game, but four of the Chiefs’ five wins have been by more than one score and three came by at least two touchdowns. That is enough to tempt me to increase the spread up to 13.5 points, though Denver’s defense is making me question that decision. Kansas City has enough talent on offense to score points on most teams and Denver’s offense is putrid enough that the risk is worthwhile. So I’ll take Kansas City laying 13.5 points at +130 odds.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

All Reviews by Josh Walfish

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