Bills vs. Patriots Betting Predictions

patriots vs bills nfl season
Buffalo vs. New England, NFL Betting Predictions, December 28

For much of the last two decades, a late-season matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills would feature the Patriots as AFC East champions and the Bills officially out of the playoffs. The roles have reversed this year as the Bills have won four straight and seven of their last eight and are looking secure the second seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been inconsistent this year and are looking to just finish this disastrous season. The Bills still have something to play for, so I expect Buffalo to take care of business again this week.

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Odds

There are not enough positive words to say about Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense right now. The Bills have just made everything look so easy since the last time they faced off with New England in Week 8 in Buffalo. In that span, the Bills have scored at least 30 points four times in six games and they’ve scored at least 26 points in all of them. Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of those six games and he’s completed at least 70 percent of his passes four times. Stefan Diggs and Cole Beasley have both risen to the occasion and made big plays for this offense while the running game has proven it can be effective in critical moments with the Zack Moss and Devin Singletary. The Bills defense has also taken a giant step forward in recent weeks since the Bills late bye in Week 11. The unit has held three of the last four opponents to less than 20 points and have forced turnovers in nine straight games, five of which included multiple takeaways.

New England’s offense has been dysfunctional for much of this season, but in particular the last four weeks. The 303 yards the Patriots scraped out against Miami last week was their most in that four-week span. Cam Newton hasn’t topped 200 passing yards in the last four weeks and the Patriots have done it just twice since their unexpected bye week in Week 5. Normally that would mean New England has a strong rushing attack, but the Patriots have run for more than 120 yards just once in the last five weeks. Outside of a 45-0 blanking of the Chargers aided by two special teams touchdowns, the Patriots haven’t hit 24 points in the last six weeks. The defense has still been up to the task and hasn’t allowed more than 27 points since Week 7, but the Patriots are just 4-4 in those eight games. The loss of All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore is a major concern against this Bills passing attack that is playing with so much confidence at the moment.

One place where the NFL betting sites in New Jersey have missed the mark is setting the over/under on this game at 46 points. This is a struggling Patriots offense facing a surging and confident Bills defense, plus an explosive Bills offense facing a Patriots defense that has played well, despite the fact it will be missing a key defender. Either they expect the Bills to score a lot of points or they have too much confidence in this Patriots offense at the moment. Even a comfortable Bills win likely won’t see Buffalo surpass 30 points, and I don’t think New England will sniff 20 in this game given its recent performances. This is a game that could threaten to finish with less than 35 points, but there’s still a lot of value in a more conservative estimate. I’m betting the under 40.5 total points at +180 odds in this game.

Bills to win

I honestly never thought I’d see a day when the Bills would be a full touchdown favorite over the Patriots in New England. Yet the New Jersey online sports betting sites have made Buffalo a seven-point favorite, and I’m questioning if that is enough. The Patriots offense is one-dimensional and dysfunctional right now while the Bills defense is surging at the right time. Buffalo is also scoring in bunches and the Patriots will be missing their best defender in this game. It’s a recipe for a blowout in New England, a rarity, but something this Bills offense can deliver given how dynamic it has been in recent weeks. If New England can’t get pressure on Allen, he’ll be able to pick apart whatever the Patriots throw at him, and the Patriots have struggled with quarterback pressure this season. I’ll be a little more conservative because of the location and the opposition, but I’m still betting the Bills laying 12.5 points at +170 odds to continue their momentum.

NJ Legal Betting Sites

Betting Site
Bonus
Brand Features
Review
Bet Now
888Sport
$500 Free Bet
$500 Free Bet
Read Review
Sugar House Sportsbook
100% Up to $250
100% Up to $250
Read Review
FanDuel
Get A $1000 Risk Free Bet
Get A $1000 Risk Free Bet
Read Review
Borgata Sports
Get $100 When You Bet $20
Get $100 When You Bet $20
Read Review
BetMGM Sports
Risk Free First Bet Up To $600
Risk Free First Bet Up To $600
Read Review
Caesars Sportsbook
First Deposit Bonus up to $300
First Deposit Bonus up to $300
Read Review

More NFL PredictionsSee more

Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

All Reviews by Josh Walfish

BACK TO TOP