Packers vs. Colts Betting Predictions

packers vs colts nfl season
Green Bay vs. Indianapolis, NFL Betting Predictions, November 22

This is one of the most exciting games of the week in my eyes because it’s a matchup of one of the league’s best offenses and one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Green Bay Packers are known for their ability to score points with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but that has slipped in recent weeks. The Indianapolis Colts are among the best on defense this season and they have put the clamps on some great offenses already. It’s the stronger defense that normally wins in these matchups, and I don’t think that changes Sunday.

Packers vs. Colts Betting Odds

Green Bay earned a big offensive boost with Aaron Jones’ return from injury, but he really hasn’t been very effective the last two weeks. Jones has rushed for just 104 yards in his two games back from injury after gaining just 15 on 10 carries against Tampa Bay in the game in which he was injured. It’s not a surprise that Green Bay’s best scoring games have come when there is balance on the offense, and that has not been the case in recent weeks. The Packers were able to get away with it against a beat-up San Francisco defense, but it has resulted in some really poor scoring efforts the last month. Rodgers is still having an MVP caliber season this year, but he’s been racking up yards and not points, especially last week against Jacksonville when he threw just two touchdowns against that poor defense.

Indianapolis’ offense has been mostly a mess, but the Colts have supplemented that with some timely scores on defense and special teams. The Colts have returned three of their league-best 11 interceptions for touchdowns, Isaiah Rodgers returned a kick for a touchdown this season and T.J. Carrie took a blocked punt back for six last week. Philip Rivers has become better with the ball in recent weeks, too, with seven touchdowns to just two interceptions in the past four weeks. The running game has improved as well with Jonathan Taylor receiving most of the carries and Nyheim Hines providing some excellent versatility as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. Hines leads the team with 33 catches edging out the 28 for Zach Pascal, who has a team-high 330 receiving yards, and Hines also has the team lead with four receiving scores. It’s the type of complementary offense that isn’t going to put up a lot of points most week, but can be consistent enough to allow the elite defense to not be overburdened.

I was going to hammer the under 51 points scored in this game for -110 odds from the New Jersey online sports betting sites. But then I saw the value in betting under 45.5 total points for +185 odds instead. The Packers have scored 24 or fewer points in three of the last five weeks and Indianapolis has scored at least 30 in three of its last four games. I think the Packers’ defense will be able to keep the Colts’ offense to less than 30 points as it has kept its last four opponents, but I’m not as convinced in Green Bay’s offense. The Colts don’t allow the explosive play and they are very effective against the run, which is what the Packers need for balance. If the Packers focus too much on passing, the whole offense seems to lose its rhythm and it creates problems.

Colts to win

I was actually a little bit surprised to see the Colts as 2.5-point favorites at the NFL betting sites in New Jersey, but almost all of that is attributed to being the home team. Indianapolis has a fantastic defense, which is definitely something the Packers have struggled against this year. The Colts offense is still a work in progress, but they have found enough ways to score points that I’m not concerned about them facing this Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers threw his third interception of the season last week as the Jaguars nearly upset the Packers in Green Bay, and the Colts lead the league with 11 interceptions this season. It’s the perfect recipe for another Green Bay loss, but I think it will be close, so I’m sticking with the Colts laying 2.5 points at +104 odds.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

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