New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Predictions

patriots vs jets nfl season
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Predictions

Who would have thought before the season that this Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup would pit the two worst teams in the AFC East against one another? The New England Patriots are in a sort of a tailspin with four straight defeats to drop well below .500 and almost out of the race for the playoffs in the AFC. It was a bit more expected that the New York Jets would be in the cellar of the division, but it’s been a dumpster fire in the Meadowlands for the Jets this year. As bad as New England has been recently, the Patriots aren’t bad enough to lose this game.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Odds

New England’s strong defense isn’t performing up to the same standard with several key contributors electing to sit out the season due to the pandemic. The offense, though, is a major issue as Cam Newton has simply exacerbated the issues the Patriots had last season. The Patriots are struggling to pass the ball at the moment, especially without Julien Edelman on the field due to injury, which means New England is relying on its rushing attack. That had some success against the Bills last week, but a costly fumble in the red zone spoiled New England’s chances to win. What we continue to see from this Patriots team is they are now the ones making critical mistakes late in games to lose instead of forcing those miscues from opponents. There isn’t a good formula for preventing those mistakes, so it might be a long year for the Patriots.

There isn’t a whole lot to write about the Jets that isn’t already known. They rank last in the NFL in both scoring and yards gained on offense with an offense that looks more feckless by the game. The defense is marginally better but still among the bottom five in points allowed and bottom 10 in yards allowed. New York has been far more susceptible against the pass than the rush, which might benefit the Jets against a run-heavy New England offense. Sam Darnold has really been let out to dry by the organization and he doesn’t have good weapons anywhere around him to showcase his talent. He’s only thrown six interceptions in six games, though, which means the Jets at the very least aren’t turning the ball over. But the Jets aren’t really stopping anybody right now, and that has led to some lopsided results in recent weeks.

This is where the fun part comes from a betting perspective because I think this sets up to grossly underperform the total points. The over/under from the New Jersey online sports betting sites is set at 42.5 points, which seems extremely high for two offenses that haven’t gotten much going the past few weeks. The Jets haven’t scored more than 10 points in the last four weeks and the Patriots’ 21 points last week were the most they have scored in the last four games. There isn’t reason to believe that either offense will explode for a larger scoring output this week, so I’m a big fan of lowering this points total significantly. As tempted as I was to go for under 29.5 points at +500 odds, I’m going to be a little more conservative and bet under 33.5 total points at +280 odds instead.

Patriots to win

New England holds a seven-point edge on the spreads at the NFL betting sites in New Jersey, but what surprises me is how little value there is in increasing the spread. The odds increase very slowly as you add more points to the spread in this game, which doesn’t bode well for value in the return on betting this game. As I stated above, I don’t expect either team to score many points, but the Patriots should still win comfortably. Given the lack of value in going too far over this number, I’ll just settle in on New England laying 10.5 points at +130 odds.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

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