Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: Free Picks, Odds & Predictions

Maple Leafs vs Oilers NHL
Toronto vs. Edmonton, Scotiabank Arena

After losing six of seven earlier this month, the Toronto Maple Leafs have steadied themselves behind the play of goaltender Jack Campbell to win their last three games. They will hope to extend that streak Monday when they play the Edmonton Oilers for the final time this season. The Oilers started off slow this season, but have come on strong with 15 wins in their last 21 games to surge into the race for the North Division crown.

Free Picks

With so many high-profiled scorers in this game, it seems to easy to pick one of them for the minimal value. Instead, I searched the NHL betting sites in New Jersey for some value and found Zach Hyman at +270 odds. Hyman has 11 goals this season and four of them have come against Edmonton, so that’s already a good start. He’s scored seven times in his last 12 games, so he’s been in good form as well. The Maple Leafs’ top line is an offensive juggernaut, but there is still a lot of good talent on other lines, and Hyman is just one example of that.

ZACH HYMAN SCORES GOAL

The Oilers had struggled to score on the Maple Leafs before their three-goal outburst on Saturday. In three games earlier this month, Edmonton scored a combined one goal on home ice, so Toronto has proven that it can eliminate the Oilers’ big guns in a game. Jack Campbell’s success is another reason why I think Edmonton is going to struggle offensively because it is hard to beat a goalie in good form like Campbell. The hockey betting sites in New Jersey are only offering +128 odds on the Oilers scoring less than 2.5 goals, but it’s better odds than picking Toronto to score more than 3.5 or trying to find a good total for the game. I chased a little bit of value to go along with my instincts on this matchup.

EDMONTON OILERS UNDER 2.5 GOALS

There’s not a great reason for me to be picking the Maple Leafs to win by multiple goals except the +165 odds from the legal sports betting sites in New Jersey. Four of Toronto’s six victories this season over Edmonton have been by multiple goals, including all three earlier this month, but the Maple Leafs haven’t been in great form. However, there’s something about the confidence Jack Campbell has infused into this team that gives me confidence in the Maple Leafs to defend home ice. Toronto is back in the driver’s seat in the North Division and the Maple Leafs understand the importance of this final regular-season game against Edmonton. Having dominated the Oilers all season, they finish the deal with a strong showing for their seventh win this season over Edmonton.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 GOALS

Best Odds

Edmonton Toronto
888Sport
-157 +128
Caesars
-162 +136
BetMGM
-155 +130

Statistics

Head to Head

This is the ninth and final regular-season meeting of the season between Toronto and Edmonton. The Maple Leads have dominated the season series thus far with six wins and an overtime defeat for 13 of a possible 16 points thus far.

Stats

  • Edmonton and Toronto are one of four teams in the NHL to not participate in a shootout this season. The Maple Leafs are 5-2 in overtime this year while the Oilers are 1-1 with both games coming against Toronto.
  • These two teams are both known for their high-octane offense but rank very different analytically. Toronto has created the most scoring chances in the league per Hockey-Reference.com and Edmonton has created the third-fewest. Yet it is the Oilers averaging more goals per game this season.
  • Tyson Barrie ranks second among NHL defensemen with 32 points this season. His 27 assists are tied for the most among blue-liners in the league but also ranks sixth in the league behind teammates Connor McDavid (41) and Leon Draisaitl (34).
  • Though plagued by injuries for most of the season, Jack Campbell has taken control of the Toronto net over the last week. In his three wins last week, Campbell posted a .939 save percentage and allowed just five combined goals in the victories.

Our Prediction for Toronto vs. Edmonton

Toronto Maple Leafs to win

The toughest teams to beat are the ones with a hot goaltender, and right now that is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Jack Campbell has been lights out in three starts since returning from an injury a week ago. He has won all three of his starts to push his season record to a perfect 6-0, and Saturday’s win over Edmonton was the first time he’s allowed more than three goals in those appearances. His strong play coupled with the fact Toronto has seemingly dominated Edmonton for most of the season help push me to pick the Maple Leafs in this game.

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Josh Walfish is an award-winning journalist who has been covering college and professional sports in the United States. He holds a journalism degree from Northwestern University and his work has appeared in the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times and Providence Journal. He most recently chronicled the UMass hockey teams rise to prominence over the last two years for the local newspaper

All Reviews by Josh Walfish

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