UFC Vegas 23 features a couple of middleweight bouts, and Sam Alvey vs Julian Marquez is also on the main card. Marquez has opened as the betting favorite due to Alvey’s less-than-favorable recent form. Alvey needs a victory here to prevent himself from disappearing into obscurity, but I think Marquez will squeeze out another surprise submission victory.
UFC Vegas 23 will treat MMA fans to what should be an exciting middleweight showdown between Sam Alvey vs Julian Marquez. Sam Alvey hasn’t won a fight since June 1, 2018, and is fresh off a draw against Da Un Jung, which took place on October 24, 2020. Apart from that, Alvey is riding a four-fight losing streak that he’ll be looking to snap against Marquez. Marquez has opened as the betting favorite, as MMA predictions and the best UFC betting sites have seemingly come around on the “Cuban Missile Crisis” after he was able to eke out a last-minute submission victory against Maki Pitolo in his last match. There isn’t much about Alvey that makes me want to throw a bet on him. Until he gets back in the win column, he’s not reliable enough to back up. In terms of their statistics, Alvey is a slightly more accurate striker at 44% than Marquez, who connects 40% of the time, but he lands less significant strikes per minute 3.17 as opposed to Marquez, who lands 3.50 strikes per minute. I’m going to bet on Marquez at the best NJ online sports betting sites, but is my decision based on Marquez’s last performance? Absolutely not. He had been away from the octagon for almost three years before his fight against Pitolo, and in all honesty, he was lucky to come away with a submission victory. I don’t expect him to come out of the gate and force Alvey into submission in the first round, but I’m more confident in his abilities than I am in Alvey’s. You can check out the NJ online sportsbook review for the best odds to bet on this fight, but you’ll find the best moneyline odds for Marquez on 888sport, where they’ve got him listed at -189 odds. The value isn’t super-enticing, so you can check out Fanduel for more markets. I’m feeling lucky for UFC Vegas 23, so I’m going to drop a bet on Marquez to win by submission, which you can get on Fanduel at +800 odds.
I don’t see any knockout potential for this match. Alvey could bounce back against Marquez, but I think Marquez is riding a high after securing victory in his last bout. My prediction: Marquez wins by submission in the 2nd round.
