UFC Fight Night 174 will cap off what has been an exciting month of fights on the now famous Fight Island in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE. The main card kicks off at 8PM ET on July 25 and includes a heavyweight clash between Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Gustaffson. Despite Gustaffson debuting at Heavyweight against a former champion, online bookmakers are significantly favoring the Swede. Find out where the value is in our Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustaffson Betting Predictions for UFC Fight Night 174.
Gustaffson is currently rated as a significant favorite over Werdum among most bookmakers. While I do agree with bookmakers in that Gustaffson has the clear advantage here I’m a little bit surprised at how wide this line is considering several variables that are in play for this fight. One big variable is that this is The Mauler’s first fight at heavy weight and will be interesting to see how he does against a fighter who was once a master of the division. With Werdum being listed at +275 by both SugarHouse and 888sport, I wouldn’t be surprised if casual fans put some money on the former champ but I would advise against it and you’ll see why in my prediction below. If you’re looking to add more value, a parlay bet with the co-main event fight will boost your winnings. Check out our prediction for that fight here. It will be tempting to put some money on a former champ who is listed at +275, but I would advise against it as this fight likely only has one outcome and that is with Gustaffson’s hand raised at the end of the fight. Werdum at 42 is merely a shell of the fighter he once was when he won UFC gold and I see him struggling immensely against the Swede.
It’s easy to point to the fact that Gustafsson has lost his last two fights but those losses aren’t remarkable when you consider that they came against quality opponents like Anthony Smith and Jon Jones, arguably the GOAT of MMA. His last defeat actually sent him into short-lived retirement, only to announce he will be fighting at a higher weight class just a little over one year after retiring. Werdum meanwhile has only fought in the UFC twice since 2017 and did not look good in his last fight. At 42, he is way past his prime and the sport has long left him behind. He is also fighting just two months after his last fight which is a short turnaround considering his advanced age. Gustaffson meanwhile is just 33 and will probably have the cardio advantage despite coming out of “retirement.” Gustaffson has tremendous power and I am certain he will retain that power at Heavyweight if not add to it. He lands 4.02 significant strikes a minute and 61% of his wins come by way of a knockout. Werdum looked painfully slow in his last fight and will be a sitting duck for Gustaffson’s strikes. After just two months since his last fight, I seriously doubt that Werdum will look much different than he did in that fight performance wise. My prediction is KO victory for Gustaffson in the 2nd round.
