Fight Island will host its third event in a week on July 18th for UFC Fight Night Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2. The main card starts at 8 PM ET including a Middleweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum. This is close to an even money fight with bookies favoring Gastelum slightly. Find out where to find value in our Jack Hermansson vs Kevin Gastelum betting prediction for UFC Fight Night 173
Most online bookmakers it seems is listing Gastelum as a slight favorite which is more consistent with his odds history than his form. I’ve never been high on Gastelum and I don’t understand how he was the betting favorite in four of his last five fights, three of which he lost. Online bookmakers such as 888sport, FanDuel, and SugarHouse all list Hermansson at even money while Gastelum is listed at -125 at 888sport and SugarHouse while Fanduel lists him at -118.
Gastelum is a heavy hitter and prefers striking despite having a black belt in BJJ. He has decent KO power and has KOed six opponents, but it’s not elite. Hermansson will also have a six inch reach advantage, a situation that has troubled Gastelum in the past. Hermansson is coming off a loss himself after being stopped by Jarred Connonier who I think has stronger punching power than Gastelum. Before that loss, Hermansson was on a four fight win streak, with three fights ending early. He had back to back submission wins even though he was initially known for his power with 11 career KOs. There’s several paths to victory here for Hermansson and I think he will be able to maximize the six-inch reach advantage and make it yet another tough day in the UFC for Gastelum. I see Hermansson knocking out Gastelum because Kelvin would want to stay on the feet and strike. Look for a win by KO option from your favorite online bookmaker.
