MLB Betting: How the Corbin Burnes Trade Changes the Orioles World Series Odds

Michael Savio pic
By:
Michael Savio
02/05/2024
MLB

Highlights

  • The Orioles won 101 games last season but lost in the first round of the playoffs
  • Corbin Burnes has a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs
  • Baltimore scored the seventh most runs in the league last season

This MLB offseason has been a wild won, and it got even wilder on Thursday. The Baltimore Orioles sent some prospects to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for former Cy Young-winner Corbin Burnes. The trade helps to improve an already good Orioles team, but does it make them a smart bet to win the World Series at MLB betting sites

Below, we will break down the case for betting on Baltimore to win it all. We’ll share the latest odds, how the trade makes them better, and what they still need to fix.

Current World Series Odds 

While the Orioles are the latest team to make a big splash this offseason, several of their rivals have also improved. Below are the current World Series odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

TEAM 

SPREAD 

MONEYLINE 

TOTAL 

San Francisco 49ers 

-2.5 (-105) 

-130 

Over 47.5 (-110) 

Kansas City Chiefs 

+2.5 (-115) 

+110 

Under 47.5 (-110) 

How Burnes Improves Baltimore 

The Orioles won 101 games last season despite a middling pitching staff. Kyle Bradish led the rotation with a 12-7 record and 2.83 ERA, but the three other full-time starters finished with ERAs over 4.10. The team’s offense and impressive bullpen made up for it, but their lack of a true ace cost them in the playoffs.

Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39 ERA) has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2020. He posted ERA’s under 3.00 in three of the last four seasons, though a weak Milwaukee offense led to his record being unimpressive. That won’t be the case now that he is with an Orioles team that scored the seventh most runs in the league last season. 

Baltimore was likely going to compete for another AL East title this season even without Burnes. He will help with that, but the biggest reason for his acquisition was the playoffs. The team was bounced out in the first round after allowing the Rangers to score 21 runs in three games. While the bullpen strategy does help cover for the lack of an ace.

Burnes comes in with 2.84 ERA over 19 playoff innings pitched. He went to the postseason three times with Milwaukee, meaning he brings a lot of experience. Having an ace like Burnes makes a big deal in the postseason, especially in elimination games. As long as the Baltimore offense continues to thrive, Burnes should give them the piece they need to make a deep playoff run. 

What the Orioles Still Need to Fix

The addition of Burnes will help boost the Baltimore pitching staff, but they likely need another arm. While Bradish’s breakout season was nice, we don’t know if he can repeat it. It was the 27-year-olds second season in the big leagues, and he posted a 4.90 ERA and 4-7 record in his first year.

While an extra starter won’t be necessary during the regular season, it will be in the playoffs. Burnes has had postseason success, but he was shelled by Arizona last season. It’s a troubling sign in the same season where he posted his highest ERA since 2019.

Baltimore took a chance on adding Shintaro Fujinami to boost their pitching. The pitcher was a star in Japan but was hit hard in his rookie season last year. While that would scare most teams away, his poor play came as a part of a terrible A’s franchise. The team traded him to Baltimore last season where he was better.

If Fujinami continues to improve, it could help settle the rest of this Baltimore rotation.