Euro 2024 2024: Spain vs Croatia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

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Euro 2024 Spain vs Croatia

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Spain enters this year's Euro with three championships under its belt, tied with host Germany for the most ever. The Spaniards have the fifth-shortest odds to pull down their fourth trophy behind only England, France, Portugal, and Germany. An unlucky draw, however, set the stage for a tough road to the elimination round. Group B contains three teams inside the top 10 of FIFA's world rankings, including Spain, Croatia, and Itlay, with Albania rounding things out.

Croatia has never made it past the quarterfinals round of the Euros tournament, but simply making it out of this group of death to the knockout stages would be a huge accomplishment in itself. If the Croats manage to escape the group stage, they'll face one of the top two teams in Group A in the round of 16.

Below, our US Legal Sports Betting professionals provide a full breakdown and the best way to wager on this clash of titans. Before placing any money on Euros 2024, make sure to check our page with the top sportsbook bonuses and promotions available in honor of this year's tournament.

Spain vs Croatia Best Odds

Spain vs Croatia Analysis


Spain has dominated its head-to-head matchup with Croatia for the last half decade. The Spaniards knocked Croatia out of the last Euros tournament in the round of 16 with a 5-3 victory in a high-scoring affair. Last year's Nations League final was much closer as Spain needed penalty kicks to claim the title. It's now been nearly six years since Croatia defeated La Roja with their last victory in this series coming in November 2018.

Spain also happens to be clicking on all cylinders heading into this year's Euros. Luis de la Fuente's side has just one loss in its last 12 matches, a 1-0 defeat to Colombia in March and Colombia may be the only team in the world on a hotter streak than Spain. In its last two friendly matches before heading to Germany, Spain handled its friendly matches against cupcake competition, easily handling Andorra and Northern Irelands by a combined score of 10-1.

Team news: De la Fuente has been careful not to reveal who will be starting against Croatia, but we can surmise a few of the players expected to make up the starting XI. We know Isco won't be participating in Spain's journey towards the finals after the Real Betis winger was announced out for at least six weeks by his club. Other than his injury, however, Spain will have all of its weapons available. Many eyes will be on Lamine Yamal, the 16-year old who will make history when he sets foot on the pitch as the youngest player to ever play in a European Championship.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Nacho, Grimaldo; Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Morata, Williams.


Croatia has a tough road ahead of it in order to make it past the group stage. However, with Luka Modric still playing at a world-class level, anything is possible, as Croatia has shown time and again. The Real Madrid star accumulated 46 assists over his last nine seasons for the club. He even put away the game-winning score against Portugal in the team's final friendly match before the tournament. With so much recent success in the World Cup, don't expect the Croats to be rattled by a tough draw in the group stage. 

Spain's defense has been the weak point of the team, a fact not lost on Modric and his teammates. In March, the Spaniards allowed three goals to Brazil in a draw after leading 2-0. Even against Northern Ireland in the Spaniard's last friendly match before the Euros La Roja allowed a weak, dribbler of a goal.

Still, finishing in the top three of the European Championship has been an elusive goal for Zlatko Dalic's national side. This will likely be Modric's last chance at any type of hardware so expect the veteran and former Ballon d'Or winner to give it all he's got.

Team news: Croatia enters this match on a six-game winning streak and with relatively perfect health. The only blemish on its injury report is the presence of Tottenham defensive winger Ivan Perisic, who suffered a serious knee injury last September. Expect Perisic to come off the bench for the majority of his appearances this tournament. 

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Brozovic, Kovacic, Modric; Majer, Budimir, Kramaric

Germany vs Scotland Key Points and Trends

  • H2H – Spain has dominated the series matchup, winning six of the last 10 meetings between the two sides.
  • Spain – La Roja are 3-1-1 in their last five matches.
  • Croatia – The Croats are unbeaten in their last six matches.
  • Player To Watch – 16-year old Lamine Yamal will become the youngest player to ever play in a European Championship as soon as he steps onto the pitch for the first time.

Spain vs Croatia Match Prediction

Spain will likely be without experienced defender Aymeric Laporte, forcing de la Fuente to turn to Real Madrid's Nacho. The downgrade to Laporte's backup shouldn't be too noticeable, however, as Nacho just led Madrid to a La Liga title. This match could come down to the poise of each team's defense as four of the last five matches between these two sides saw game-changing goals in the 87th minute or later. That includes last year's Nations League final that went into penalty kicks.

Both squads have been prolific when trying to score as well. Spain has at least two goals scored in eight of its last 10 matches. Croatia has achieved the same feat in ffour of its past five. As talented as Spain's attack has proven itself, the defense has left a lot to be desired. If Croatia can manage at least one goal, I would expect Spain to push this match over the total goals line of 2.5.

Spain vs Croatia Best Bet:

Over 2.5 Goals (+110) | BetRivers

Most sportsbooks list the Spaniards as the clear favorites to win this game with an implied win probability of 52%. However, BetRivers is offering plus-money odds for there to be three goals scored in this opening round game for both teams. That's too good to pass up when you consider the strengths and weaknesses of both of these teams. Plus, this matchup has yielded at least three goals in four of the last five meetings, with an average of 4.4 goals per contest.

Spain vs Croatia (+340)