MLS: Inter Miami CF vs New York Red Bulls - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

Josh Lander
Josh Lander
MLS Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
MLS Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls

Lionel Messi is coming off a brilliant 2-goal performance last week and will look to keep Inter Miami’s three-game winning streak intact. The Herons welcome New York City Red Bulls to Chase Stadium for a 7:30 p.m. EST kickoff this Saturday, May 4. Miami players will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out 4-0 by the Red Bulls in March. The biggest difference will be Messi’s return after he missed the teams’ prior meeting. Our USA Legal Betting pros like Miami’s success to continue. See how they’re betting this week’s matchup using the top sports betting apps available. 

Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Odds

These are the core betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. As always, make sure to shop around for the best and most up-to-date lines available.

MoneylineInter Miami -130New York Red Bulls +280
Total GoalsOver 2.5 -165Under +125
Both Teams To ScoreYes -170No +130

Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami CF

Inter Miami CF hasn’t lost a match since March 23. That loss happened to be a 4-0 defeat suffered at the hands of the Red Bulls. Since then, the Herons have soared to the top of the table with 21 points on the season. Their surge in quality play is clearly correlated with the return of Lionel Messi, who missed all of March and part of April with an injured hamstring. The team is 3-1-0 since his return, winning all three games in which he’s played 90 minutes.

Team news: Inter Miami is still missing a few key players due to injury including: defenders Ian Fray and Sergiy Kryvtsov; midfielders Facundo Farias and Federico Redondo; and forwards Robbie Robinson and Leonardo Campana.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Drake Callender

Defense: Nicolas Freire, Tomas Aviles, Franco Negri, Marcelo Weigandt

Midfield: Sergio Busquets, David Ruiz, Julian Gressel.

Forwards: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Robert Taylor.

New York Red Bulls

New York has managed to avoid defeat since these teams last met,  going 2-4-0. The Red Bulls find themselves tied for fifth in the East, just four games behind Miami. Lewis Morgan has been sensational, netting seven goals so far, just two behind Messi for the league lead. Three of those goals came against Miami, so expect Gerardo Martino’s defense to keep all eyes on the Scottish striker.

Team news: A few Red Bulls players grace the team’s injury report for Saturday, including: midfielders Peter Shroud and Ronald Donkor; and forwards Serge Ngoma and Roald Mitchell.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Carlos Miguel

Defense: Dylan Nealis, Sean Nealis, Noah Eile, John Tolkin 

Midfield: Dennis Gjengaar, Wikelman Carmona, Daniel Edelman, Emil Forsberg

Forwards: Lewis Morgan, Dante Vanzeir

MLS Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Key Points and Trends

  • H2H (last five games): New York has won three of the last five meetings, including a 4-0 thrashing in March in NYC earlier this year.
  • Inter Miami at home: Miami is 3-2-1 at home this season, outsourcing opponents 15-7 over the six matches.
  • New York on the road: The Red Bulls are 2-3-1 away from home with a -1 goal differential (7:8).
  • Miami attack: The Herons have scored at least one goal in seven straight matches.
  • Lionel Messi: Messi put two goals away vs. New England last week, giving him the lead for the most goals (9) in MLS matches this season.

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MLS Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Match Prediction

Miami will be thirsty for revenge in this one, after New York took advantage of Messi’s absence in their last meeting. The Argentine striker wasted no time claiming the league-lead for goals scored upon his return to action, netting nine of them in just seven appearances.

The Red Bulls have relied on their stout defense to carry them to the top third of the table, however they haven’t faced an attack like Miami’s at full strength. Inter’s offense ranks first in both goals scored and expected goals, and third in average time of possession. Prior to Messi’s return, the team wasn’t even top 10 in most crucial offensive categories.

New York’s defense also doesn’t travel well. In six home matches, the Red Bulls have a +5 goal differential, only conceding twice. On the road however, they’ve allowed eight scores with a -1 differential.

Miami’s attack, on the other hand, has been more than impressive at Chase Stadium. The Eastern Conference leaders have scored in all six matches on their home turf.

MLS Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Best Bet:

Inter Miami Win / Over 1.5 Goals (+110) | DraftKings

Miami has plenty of incentive to get up for this one as these teams face off for the second time this season. There is value in backing Messi’s side to win outright, but I’m also banking on two goals from the home team in a Herons’ victory. There’s no reason for them to take their foot off the gas if they go up one or two goals and I plan to sprinkle a little bit of coin on an Inter victory combined with over 2.5 goals as well. Miami has shown a propensity to cough up lazy goals once they build a lead, failing to record a single clean sheet in any of their victories. The safe play is the Miami win with over 1.5 goals, but there’s also plenty of opportunity to cash a few plays based on this game theory.