MLS: Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

06/14/2024
MLS
MLS Inter Miami vs Philadelphia
MLS Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union

Inter Miami continued its torrid scoring pace last time out against St. Louis City. The Herons trailed three separate times thoughout their 90 minute battle with St. Louis, but managed to pull even and eventually settled for a 3-3 draw. On the flip side, it was also the second game in a row that saw Miami allow three scores to the opposition, having lost to Atlanta on the road 3-1 the previous week. Tata Martino's club has now earned 21 of its 35 points in games where it conceded first. It's an impressive stats that Miami would like to avoid continuing in this week's match against Philadelphia. Read on to see how our US Legal Sports Betting pros are betting the Miami Herons vs Philadelphia Union match this weekend.

Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union Best Odds

Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami

With Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez at the helm of this season's journey through the MLS, Inter Miami have been historically good in the attack. The Herons have scored a league-best 42 goals through the first half of the season and have a legitimate shot at securing the MLS record for most scores in a single campaign. The 1998 LA Galaxy and 2019 LACFC both blasted 85 goals. Unfortunately, they'll be forced to rely on their strikers not named Messi or Suarez against Philadelphia on the road as both players appear destined for the bench with injuries in this one.

Since losing to the Red Bulls 4-0 in March, Miami hasn't lost a road contest. They remain unbeaten in their last five matches outside of Miami, however Suarez and Messi played in all five of thoe fixtures. This week, Martino and his squad will rely on the likes of Leonardo Campana to find the back of the net. Campana has four goals on the season which is exactly one third the amount of that Messi and Suarez have each separately accounted for. 

Team News: Lionel Messi endured a tweak to his hamstring in a friendly match for Argentina when the defending World Cup champs faced Ecuador last week. With the Copa America tournament upon us, Messi will look to make sure he's back to full strength before taking the pitch for Miami. Suarez is unlikely to play as well and for similar reasons as he was officially named to his home country Uruguay's international side for Copa America. Other injured Herons who are unlikely to play this weekend include Diego Gomez Robbie Robinson, Nicolas Freire, Ian Fray and Facundo Farias.

Predicted Lineup: Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Kryvtsov, Alba; Redondo, Busquets, Bright; Campana, Afonso, Taylor

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia has had an up-and-down season as it reaches the midway point of its regular season. The Union are barely above the playoff line without much room for error in a crowded Eastern Conference. The team sits in eighth place as it welcomes Miami to town, with just three points staving off DC United for the final spot in the postseason. Pennsylvania sportsbooks currently list the home state side at +1400 to win the Eastern Conference.

Like Miami, Jim Curtain's squad has taken awhile to find its rhythm after the opening whistle. Philly has just three goals in the first half of its last 10 games.

Home fixtures have been a major issue for the Union. With four defeats on their own pitch, Philadelphia has already reached the most amount of losses at home in the last six years. While the team's offense has been magnificent in creating chances, finishing them has been a different story. Still, with Messi and Suarez sidelined, Philly will have its focus squarely on obtaining three points in what would have otherwise been considered an upset.

Team News: The Union will be without a few key players due to international play including: Damion Lowe (Jamaica), Daniel Gazdag (Hungary), and Jose Martinez (Venezuela). Julian Carranza, Andre Blake, and Isaiah LeFlore could miss this game with injuries, while Jack Elliot will be forced to sit after receiving a red card in the team's last match.

Predicted Lineup: Semmle; Glesnes, Harriel, Makhanya; Mbaizo, McGlynn, Bedoya, Flach, Wagner; Donovan, Uhre

Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union Key Points and Trends

  • H2H (last five games): Miami is 2-3 in its last five matches agains the Union. However, the Herons did pull out an impressive 4-1 victory when the two teams met last August.
  • Inter Miami at home: Miami is 5-3-2 at home in MLS play this season.
  • Philadelphia on the road: Philly is 3-5-0 on the road in MLS play this season.
  • Next man up for Miami: With its two legendary stars out this week, Miami will rely on Leonardo Campano to add to his four goals this year.

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Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Match Prediction

Inter Miami has not been considered an underdog in a very long time. In fact, the last time the team had its moneyline listed with plus-odds was the last time Messi failed to suit up entirely back in March. Messi and Suarez, however, don't play in the defense, which has been dreadful for the Herons over the last few weeks. The Herons have allowed seven goals over their last three fixtures, keeping them at the bottom of the defensive standings. They'll likely need 2-3 goals on the road this week to maintain pace with Philadelphia.

Despite the absence of its two best attackers, Miami still has its creative midfield intact. If Martino's men can maintain the amount of chances they create, Campano should find ample opportunities to add to his goals total this season. Many teams have been high on Campano who hasn't seem deterred by the fact that the Messi and Suarez signings meant he was destined to ride the bench for most games this season. His positive outlook has helped him put away four chances already, a total he'll be looking to expand upon in Philly.

Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union Best Bet:

Over 3.5 Goals +120 | BetMGM

Martino and his staff haven't made and changes to Miami's porous defense over the last few weeks. To be fair, there doesn't seem to be much he can do in terms of strategy. As a result, Philly seems primed to continue peppering Miami's talented keeper, Drake Callender. While the Union have fared well in their own right over the past few weeks, Miami's reserve attackers have enough confidence to keep pace with Philadelphia's scoring prowess, even if the defense has been unstable. Let's back the goals in this one and take the plus-money odds for at least four shots to find the back of the net.