MLS: Inter Miami vs St. Louis City - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

05/30/2024
MLS
MLS Inter Miami vs St Louis
MLS Inter Miami vs St. Louis City

In a shocking turn of events, 12th place Atlanta United upended Inter Miami’s impressive unbeaten streak on Wednesday. Lionel Messi scored the team’s only goal on an assist from Sergio Busquets to make it 2-1 in the 62nd minute, but the Herons were unable to overcome another early deficit this season, falling 3-1 to the visitors. Miami still holds a slim lead over Cincinnati FC for the top spot in the Eastern Conference thanks to Cincy’s upset loss to Nashville. Find out why our Legal Sports Betting pros still favor the league leaders to bounce back and start a new win streak against St. Louis City on Saturday.

Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Best Odds

Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami

Miami had won three consecutive home games before losing to Atlanta United on Wednesday. The defeat came as a big surprise to most bettors as the Herons were at full strength for that midweek match. For the 11th time this season, Miami gave up an early lead. This time, however, Tata Martino’s boys couldn’t manage a comeback.

It’s not yet clear if the Eastern Conference leaders will trot out their normal starters. Most likely, at least one of Luis Suarez, Lionel Messi, and Sergio Busquets will either exit early, come off the bench late, or not play at all. With St. Louis City floundering towards the bottom of the table, Martino doesn’t have much reason to send out his full attacking roster. At the same time, Miami will receive a much-needed week off following its home tussle with St. Louis, meaning we may in fact see most of its top talent for at least a half.

Keep an eye on the updated lineups as you go to place your bets this weekend.

Team News: Many of Miami’s injured players continue to improve as the team nears full strength. The team’s injury report for Saturday includes Ian Fray, Nicolas Freire, Facundo Farias, and Diego Alexander Gomez Amarilla.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Drake Callender

Defense: Jordi Alba, Nicolas Freire, Tomas Aviles, Marcelo Weigandt

Midfield: Benjamin Cremaschi, Sergio Busquets, Julian Gressel

Forwards: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Matias Rojas

St Louis CitySt. Louis City

St. Louis City will head to Chase Stadium on Saturday as hefty underdogs against Miami. Despite winning all three regular season meetings with Miami in the clubs’ histories, the Herons have never looked this good before. Add in the fact that STL is having a down year and it makes sense to see their long odds listed across most betting sites.

City has lost three in a row, including a tough 2-1 defeat against Seattle last weekend. St. Louis hurt itself with an own goal in the 66th minute, which ended up being the difference.

With Miami coming into this game on short rest, St. Louis should have a leg up in this one, but the talent disparity between the two sides neutralizes any rest advantage they would otherwise be able to utilize.

Team News: St. Louis City does not have any players listed on its injury report ahead of this week’s match in Miami.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Roman Bürki

Defense: Kyle Hiebert, Joakim Nilsson, Tim Parker, Tomas Totland

Midfield: Njabulo Blom, Chris Durkin, Rasmus Alm, Indiana Vassilev, Celio Pompeu

Forwards: Klauss

Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Key Points and Trends

  • H2H (last five games): Miami is 0-3 all time vs St. Louis City.
  • Inter Miami at home: Miami is 5-2-2 at home in MLS play this season.
  • St. Louis on the road: St. Louis is 0-4-2 on the road in MLS play this season.
  • Miami’s Win Streak: The Herons saw their eight-game unbeaten streak halted after losing to Atlanta United 3-1.

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Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Match Prediction

Miami finds itself in a tight race with Cincinnati FC for the Supporter’s Shield. The incentive to stay atop the standings could propel Martino and his staff to keep their starters on the pitch for a bit longer than might be expected. So far this year, Miami has consistently avoided playing Messi on such short turnarounds between games. However, with a week of rest coming up for the Herons, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Messi out there for at least a half in this one.

With the best goal scorer of all time on the pitch, it would appear a bounceback game is in order for Miami. Most of Inter’s roster was present for the 3-0 shalaking St. Louis handed out last July, meaning revenge is in order on Saturday. If the Herons can obtain two goals, that should be enough to defeat the 5th worst team in the league according to its record. STL hasn’t put away two goals since May 11.

Inter Miami vs St. Louis City Best Bet:

Miami Moneyline -225 | BetMGM

This wager may not be appealing to those who fear Miami will be without its key attacking players against St. Louis. As the saying goes, however, “scared money don’t make money.” I have confidence that, even without one of its legendary stars, Miami has a strong enough bench to outscore a St. Louis side that is starving for offensive creativity. The underlying metrics from Miami’s loss to Atlanta indicate they could have easily won that game thanks in large part to its dominance on the ball (the Herons owned 61% of possession). If they put together a similar type of performance, expect them to earn a well-deserved victory unlike Wednesday’s outcome.