MLS: Inter Miami vs Atlanta United - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

05/29/2024
MLS
MLS Inter Miami vs Atlanta United
MLS Inter Miami vs Atlanta United

We reverted back to our winning ways in last week’s article, correctly projecting under 3.5 goals between Miami and Vancouver. Miami meanwhile, continued its torrid pace over the last two months, securing a 2-1 victory over the Vancouver Whitecaps. As bad as Vancouver has been of late, this week’s opponent, Atlanta United, has been even worse, earning a measly 13 points through 14 matches. The team also hasn’t won a match in nine straight appearances and currently sits in 12th in the Eastern Conference. Check out how our Legal Online Sports betting experts are handicapping this week's Miami match.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Best Odds

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami

Even without its top three performers, Tata Martino’s side earned an impressive 2-1 victory in Vancouver last week. Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Sergio Busquets all sat out the entire match against the Whitecaps, despite all three being labeled “100% healthy.” While only a fool would suggest the Herons are better without their international stars, it was a successful gamble that paid off for the first-place side.

With two games in four days, Miami’s superstars will benefit greatly from extra rest. Martino also has the luxury of flexibility when it comes to roster management against Atlanta on Wednesday, as well as on Saturday as the team welcomes St. Louis City.

Those who did play last week should also be fairly fit for the team’s upcoming matches. Having drawn first blood, a rare feat for Miami this season, Martino was able to pack in his defense and forgo the need to exert too much energy on offense. The Herons had conceded first in 10 of their first 13 matches before grabbing the lead in the 38th minute.

By earning its tenth victory of the season, Miami has already surpassed last season’s win total, and remains tied for the league lead in wins with FC Cincinnati.

With Atlanta in town this week, the Herons will look to remain unbeaten at home versus the Five Stripes over their last six meetings. That includes three straight wins outright for Martino’s side when the teams match up in Fort Lauderdale.

Team News: Diego Gomez remains questionable this week, after missing last week’s match with an ankle sprain. Robbie Robinson was also missing with extreme knee soreness and is questionable to play against Atlanta. Ian Fray will likely miss one more game as he attempts to return from his ACL injury and Serhiy Kryvtsov is already back in action, playing all 90 minutes in Vancouver after missing multiple weeks. Federico Redondo also made it back from injury last week, subbing in the second half to play for the first time since incurring a knee injury of his own.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Drake Callender

Defense: Jordi Alba, Nicolas Freire, Tomas Aviles, Marcelo Weigandt

Midfield: Benjamin Cremaschi, Sergio Busquets, Julian Gressel

Forwards: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Matias Rojas

Atlanta United Official LogoAtlanta United

This season has easily been Atlanta’s worst start in club history. Head man Gonzalo Pineda may be looking for a new gig as the Five Stripes seem destined to finish well below preseason expectations with zero accolades to boot. If the club has any intention of making a run at the postseason, it’ll need to buck out of its current winless streak of 10 games. One more loss or draw would tie the club’s record for most games without a win, set at 11 back in 2021. 

Avoiding its 11th consecutive match without a successful win will not be easy, however. The Five Stripes are winless on the road in domestic play so far. While its defense has been anything but stellar, the offense has been even more anemic away from its home stadium in Georgia. Atlanta’s attack has failed to find the back of the net in four of six road games. 

Already with seven defeats in MLS play, the Five Stripes have only two fewer losses than they suffered all of last season. Still, the last time these teams faced off at the end of the 2023 season, Atlanta walked away with a 5-2 victory at home. If they can pull off a seemingly miraculous win this week, it would be the first time they’ve done so at Miami’s home stadium in six tries.

Team News: Atlanta’s starting goalie, Brad Guzan won’t be available on Wednesday after getting sent off with a red card last week. Its injury report is pretty packed as well, as Noah Cobb continues to nurse a sore ankle and leading goal scorer, Giorgos Giakoumakis has a hamstring strain.

Nicolas Firmino is questionable to play after suffering a minor groin tweak in the US Open Cup against Charleston Battery. Tyler Wolff is hoping to play as he recovers from an MCL sprain and Derrick Williams remains likely available, despite sustaining a minor calf injury last weekend.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Joshua Cohen

Defense: Brooks Lennon, Derrick Williams, Luis Abram, 

Midfield: Edwin Mosquera, Thiago Almada, Bartosz Slisz, Ajani Fortune

Forwards: Jamal Thiare, Alexandra Silva

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Key Points and Trends

  •  H2H (last five games): Miami is 3-2 vs Atlanta in their last 5 meetings.
  • Inter Miami at home: Miami is 5-2-1 at home in MLS play this season.
  • Atlanta on the road: Atlanta is 0-3-3 on the road in MLS play this season.
  • Miami’s dominance: The Herons have outscored opponents by a total of 25-12 during their current 10 game unbeaten streak in MLS play.

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Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Match Prediction

Tata Martino surprised many by keeping Messi, Suarez, and Busquets all on the sidelines for the entirety of last week’s game. He also put the rest of the league on notice with a clear message: We can win without the star power of our aging legends.

While all three are in line to start on Wednesday, it’s highly possible they are all taken off the pitch early to rest for Saturday’s home match with St. Louis City. In order for Martino and his staff to feel comfortable replacing their best players, Miami will need to build an early lead.

With this type of gamesmanship in mind, expect Miami to come out strong from the opening kick. Trust that the entire team and its staff will be focused on building an early two-goal lead for the purpose of relieving as many starters as possible in the second half. After beginning last week’s victory with a 2-0 lead, it's clear the Herons have it in them to come out strong right away, unlike their previous matches this season.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United Best Bet:

Miami Halftime/Full Time +110 | BetMGM

Odds have been provided by BetMGM. Read our BetMGM review.

Since I’m projecting Miami to start so strongly, I love the team’s ability to lead at both the half and at the end of full time. The Herons’ early focus should be around alleviating the need for its best players to remain in the game for longer than 60 minutes. Considering Atlanta’s inability to score on the road, two goals should put this thing away, a fact Martino and company are well aware of.