NBA Expert Picks and Best Bets | February 29

Thursday marks the last day of February. After that, the NBA season will start to head into its stretch run. The NBA promises to leave February with a bang, as there are several intriguing matchups on the schedule. We managed to put our heads together and come up with three picks from three separate betting sites that we think will pay off.

In case you’re not sure if you’re able to bet in your home state, our guide to legal sports betting states will break everything down for you state by state.

Over 217.5 | -110 at FanDuel

Admittedly, there is some reason to be wary of this pick because the Hornets have stayed under the point total in six straight games. They are also averaging just 107.7 points per game, which is aggressively unimpressive for an NBA team. On top of that, the Hornets managed just 85 points in Tuesday’s loss in Milwaukee. However, Charlotte should be able to do better than that back at home on Thursday night. 

As long as the Hornets can do a little better than they did on Tuesday, the Bucks should be able to take it the rest of the way. Keep in mind that 11 of Milwaukee’s last 13 games have stayed under the point total. However, this is easily the lowest over/under total the Bucks have seen during that stretch. Multiple times during that stretch, the point total was over 230 points. The Bucks have close to 122 points per game because they have big-time scorers like Giannis and Damian Lillard. Unless the Hornets fall completely flat again, this game should be able to hit 218 points.

Knicks ML | +120 at BetMGM

There's no denying that the Knicks are struggling with injuries right now. Even Jalen Brunson is a little banged up right now. But the Knicks are also one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 20-10 at MSG this season. That makes them worth taking a chance on as a slight home underdog on Thursday night. With a marquee opponent like the Warriors in town, the home crowd will give the Knicks a much-needed lift.

As for the Warriors, they got off to a good start on their road trip on Tuesday with a win over the Wizards. But facing the Knicks on the road is another step up in competition. This is Golden State’s first game against a quality opponent since Chris Paul came back from injury, so working him back into the rotation will be tougher than it was in Washington. The Warriors are also missing Andrew Wiggins, further opening the door for the Knicks to get the upset win.

Nets -1.5 | -113 at BetRivers

The spread is so small in this game that we have to back the Nets at home. Brooklyn is 10-2 straight-up this season as a home favorite. With the spread being negligible, the season-long trends favor the Nets. Of course, the Nets have lost eight of their last 10 games. But part of that is a 1-4 road trip over the last two weeks. They’ll be happy and motivated to be playing at home, which should lift them to a win over the Hawks. 

While the Nets have excelled as a home favorite, the Hawks are just 5-12 straight-up as a road underdog. Again, that trend says a lot with such a small spread. Atlanta is also just 2-6 in its last eight road games. With Trae Young being lost to injury last week, the Hawks are going to have a hard time winning any game, even against the Nets, which is why we’re backing Brooklyn in this game.