MLS: Inter Miami vs D.C. United - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

05/17/2024
MLS
MLS DC United vs Inter Miami
MLS Inter Miami vs D.C. United

For the first time in six straight games, Inter Miami failed to leave the pitch with three points. It wasn’t all bad, however, as the Herons still managed to pick up a point in a 0-0 draw in Orlando. The draw vs. their cross-state rivals also marked the second time this season Miami failed to score a goal. Tata Martino’s club still has at least one streak going, remaining unbeaten in six straight matches. It’ll look to get back to its winning ways at home against D.C. United this Saturday. Get all of our USA Legal Betting experts’ picks and predictions for this inter-conference matchup with available wagers across the top soccer betting sites.

Inter Miami vs D.C. United Best Odds

Inter Miami vs D.C. United Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami

Miami’s midweek draw in Orlando thinned their lead in the Supporters' Shield standings for first place. They’re essentially tied with FC Cincinnati atop the table, with only goal differential nudging them ahead.

The Herons are still unbeaten in their last four MLS matches at their home stadium, with a +6 goal differential over their last two. With Messi in the lineup since early April, scoring has come in bunches for the league leaders. They’ve netted at least one goal in their last eight fixtures in Miami, and have walked away with at least two in 90% of those games.

They have points in three of their last four meetings versus DC United but lost their previous home game against them in 2023 (2-1).

Team News: Lionel Messi remains questionable to play in this match. In addition to Messi, Inter Miami is also missing a few regular names to the injury list, including: defenders Ian Fray, and Sergiy Kryvtsov; midfielders Facundo Farias and Federico Redondo; and forwards Robbie Robinson and Leonardo Campana. 


Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Drake Callender

Defense: Nicolas Freire, Tomas Aviles, Franco Negri, Marcelo Weigandt

Midfield: Sergio Busquets, David Ruiz, Julian Gressel.

Forwards: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Robert Taylor.


Orlando City

United have dropped to eighth in the conference over the last few weeks, struggling to limit opposing offenses with any consistent effectiveness. Losing to Nashville SC recently was a blow to their playoff positioning as well. D.C. now sits just three points above them for the final spot in the postseason.

United rank 22nd in expected goals against having conceded more than one goal in five of their last six matches. On the season, they now sit 2nd-to-last in actual goals allowed among Eastern Conference teams. 

D.C. will play two of its next three games at home, which, for some teams, may seem like a disadvantage. United, however, has played so poorly at home recently, its players might actually prefer taking to the road. Of their six games play away from home, the red and black have recorded a point in all but one. Their last road game ended with a 3-2 win over Atlanta United.

Team News: Russell Canouse missed last game DC with a health issue and Conner Antley is likely done for this season with a torn ACL.


Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Alex Bono

Defense: Christopher McVey, Aaron Herrera, Lucas Bartlett, Matti Peltola, Cristian Dajome, 

Midfield: Jackson Hopkins, Jared Stroud, Mateusz Klich

Forwards: Ted Ku-Dipietro, Christian Beneteke

Inter Miami vs D.C. United Key Points and Trends

  • H2H (last five games): Miami is 2-2-1 in its last 5 matches vs D.C, United in its last five meetings.
  • Inter Miami at home: Miami is 4-2-1 at home in MLS play this season.
  • D.C. United in the road: United is 1-4-1 on the road in MLS play this season.
  • Miami’s dominance: The Herons have outscored opponents by a total of 19-8 during their current six game unbeaten streak.
  • Messi & Suarez: Luis Suarez currently holds a one goal advantage over his teammate and football legend Lionel Messi. The two greats sit atop the league leaders for the golden boot.

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Inter Miami vs D.C. United Match Prediction

Lionel Messi’s questionableness makes this game a bit tougher to handicap than most. Rarely, if ever, have we seen such a massive swing in game projections based on just one player. Of course, rarely have we seen a player of Messi’s caliber in the MLS or in any league for that matter.

If Messi is unable to give it a go at home on Saturday, we’ll likely see the Herons struggle to score in similar fashion to their recent draw against Orlando. Prior to his return from injury in April, Miami only mustered slightly more than one goal per game across four matches. Since then, the Herons have been an absolute powerhouse in front of the net, creating the most chances in the league and finishing the most as well.

With or without Messi, the Herons have struggled to defend all season. D.C. striker Christian Beneteke has been one of the most dangerous strikers this campaign. The talented Belgian goal-scorer caught up to Miami’s Luis Suarez for the league-lead in goals with 11 of his own.

Whether he plays or not, Miami have not proven to be consistently strong at the back, and they will be facing one of the deadliest strikers in the league in Christian Benteke, who we believe will make the difference for the visitors.

Inter Miami vs D.C. United Best Bet:

Over 3.5 Goals (-120) | BetMGM

We took our first loss after a 3-0 start to Inter Miami betting plays. Messi's late scratch certainly crushed our hopes of a Miami win alongside 4 total goals.

This week, Messi or no Messi, we should should still have plenty of scoring action. If the Miami star is available, we’re looking at three of the top five scorers in the league on one pitch. If he’s not, Beneteke and Suarez are still massive threats to finish against any number of defenders in their way.

Eight of Miami’s last nine games have seen at least three total goals. Both teams have scored in an even more notable nine of their last 10. At home, the goals have poured in as of late, totaling four or more in each of their last three games on home soil.

D.C. United has trended to the over almost as often, with over 2.5 goals in five of its last six games. They remain fifth in the league in expected goals per game, with one of the top strikers around.