MLS: Inter Miami vs Orlando City - Odds, Prediction & Best Bet

Josh Lander
Josh Lander
MLS Inter Miami vs Orlando City
MLS Inter Miami vs Orlando City

For the sixth time this season, Inter Miami CF came from behind to win after conceding the first goal. It was the Herons’ fifth straight win this season, setting a new club record for consecutive victories. Now, the Herons head up to Orlando to take on Orlando City SC at 7:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday, May 15. While Tata Martino’s side has dominated Orlando 9-2 over their last three meetings, it has yet to win an away game against its rivals up the road. Our USA Legal Betting experts provide their best bets and projections for this week’s game.

Inter Miami vs Orlando City Best Odds

Inter Miami vs Orlando City Analysis

Inter Miami CF Official LogoInter Miami

Miami has outscored its opponents 19-8 during its five-game winning streak for an impressive +11 goal differential. One has to wonder, however, how much greater that number would be if the Herons were to limit early goals conceded. Still, allowing the first goal has seemed to jolt the league leaders into a frenetic offensive pace, resulting in a league-best 35 goals. Inter Miami has had plenty of success at home against Orlando, crushing them by a score of 5-0 in early March. On the road, however, they haven’t earned three points in Orlando in their last six attempts.

Team News: Inter Miami is still missing a few key players due to injury including: defenders Ian Fray, Jordia Alba, and Sergiy Kryvtsov; midfielders Facundo Farias and Federico Redondo; and forwards Robbie Robinson and Leonardo Campana.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Drake Callender

Defense: Nicolas Freire, Tomas Aviles, Franco Negri, Marcelo Weigandt

Midfield: Sergio Busquets, David Ruiz, Julian Gressel.

Forwards: Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Robert Taylor.

MLS Orlando City Official LogoOrlando City

Signs of life have been emanating from Orlando City SC for a few weeks now. The Lions climbed into 11th place in the Eastern Conference after a thrilling victory over the Philadelphia Union last weekend. They now find themselves just two points back for the final playoff spot in the conference. Of the team’s 12 points on the season, eight of them were earned after allowing the opening goal. Conversely, scoring first has not been a recipe for wins as Orlando has lost two of its last three matches after breaking open the scoring. Opening goals aside, the Lions will have their hands full when trying to stop Miami’s attack. The team ranks 23rd in goals conceded per game in MLS play.

Team News: A few players are set to return from injury for Orlando SC. However, the Lions will still be without defenders Rafael Santos and Tahir Reid-Brown, midfielder Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, and forward Ramiro Enrique.

Predicted Lineup:

Goalie: Pedro Gallese

Defense: Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, Wilder Cartagena

Midfield: Cesar Araujo, Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres, Nicolas Lodeiro, Ivan Angulo

Forwards: Luis Muriel, Duncan McGuire

Inter Miami vs Orlando City Key Points and Trends

  • H2H (last five games): Miami is 3-1-1 in its last 5 matches vs Orlando, routing the Lions 5-0 on March 2 this season.
  • Inter Miami on the road: Miami is 4-1-1 in MLS play this season, outsourcing opponents 14-11.
    Orlando at home: The Lions are 0-2 in their first two MLS games at home this season.
  • Miami’s dominance: The Herons have outscored opponents by a total of 19-8 during their current 5-game winning streak.
  • Messi & Suarez: Luis Suarez passed his Argentine teammate Lionel Messi for the league-lead in goals after scoring in the 45th minute last Saturday in Montreal.

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Inter Miami vs Orlando City Match Prediction

With Messi and Suarez prepared to suit up against Orlando, Miami looks set to notch at least another three goals. The Herons have put at least three goals away in all five of their victories during their current five-game win streak. They also have yet to lose a game when these two legends grace the pitch, drawing one of them when Messi was pulled in the 60th minute. Every game with the pair playing 90+ minutes has resulted in three points.

Turning towards Orlando City’s defense, Oscar Pareja's side simply don’t have what it takes to match such a formidable attack. The Lions have allowed the 8th most goals on the season and sit 22nd in expected goals per game.

It’s safe to assume goals are likely to come from both teams, as Miami’s defense has left a bit to be desired, especially for a team with championship aspirations. Miami actually ranks worse than Orlando with 18.2 expected goals per game. In fact, the Herons haven’t recorded a clean sheet in 14 straight matches dating back to last season.

There are a number of ways to attack these angles, but we’ve got our sites set on the most valuable look. See how we’re taking advantage of the game theory that there will be goals aplenty in a Herons victory.

Team vs. Team Best Bet:

Inter Miami Win / Over 3.5 Goals (+525) | BetMGM

Make it 3-0 with our Inter Miami betting picks this season. We’ve played a similar market each week since I began writing these articles for USA Legal Betting, so why stop now? Miami’s attack with Suarez and Messi at the helm. We haven’t even mentioned Sergio Busquets yet either, who runs the midfield with a 7.53 player rating on the season. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have yielded at least four goals. Let’s back that to happen a fifth time in six games alongside the Herons picking up their sixth straight victory on the season.