NBA Betting: The Three Most Important Factors That Will Decide the NBA Finals

Basketball news


  • Boston favored to win the series at -225
  • The Celtics have lost just two games during the playoffs
  • Kyrie averaged 27 points and made 49% of his shots in the WCF

The NBA Finals is officially set with the Dallas Mavericks will square off against the Boston Celtics. Both teams dominated in the Conference Finals, but NBA betting sites have top-seeded Boston as a slight favorite heading into Game 1. If you are looking for help picking a winner, we have you covered.

Below, we’ll share the three factors our US Legal Sports Betting experts think will determine how the NBA Finals play out. We will provide the latest odds and insights, giving you everything you need to bet confidently using betting apps during the Finals.

Odds to Win NBA Finals

Betting sites and Massachusetts sportsbooks have made the Celtics a favorite to win the series, but not by much. Below are the latest odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Be sure to also check out our BetMGM Sportsbook review to find out if it’s the right choice for you!

Dallas Mavericks+180
Boston Celtics-225

3. When Will Kristaps Porzingis Return?

The Celtics had no problem advancing to the Finals without Kristaps Porzingis, but they will face a healthy Mavericks team that is playing as well as they have been. The veteran big man averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks during the season, making him one of the best big means in the league when healthy.

Porzingis’s return could help give the Celtics a major edge in rebounding. The teams have been grabbing boards at about the same rate, with the Celtics averaging 43.7 per game while the Mavs are close behind at 43.1. Considering that Porzingis has been out since Game 4 of Boston’s opening series, we think he will widen the gap between these two teams, which could be all the team needs to win.

Porzingis also had a disappointing tenure with the Luca and the Mavericks, which led to his move to Washington after 2.5 seasons. Stars tend to thrive against their former teams, and this could lead to a monster series for the Latvian big man.

2. Boston Faces First Healthy Opponent

The Mavericks could be the first team the Celtics face that has their stars healthy. The beat a Miami team missing Jimmy Butler, a Cavs team that lost Donovan Mitchell after three games, and a Pacers team that lost Tyrese Haliburton after Game 2. There is nothing the Celtics can do about that, but it does mean this team has not been challenged at the same level as the Mavs.

As well as Boston has been playing, they could be caught off guard when they face a Mavs team with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving healthy and playing well.

1. Kyrie vs. Jrue

We see the battle between Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday as being the most important factor heading into the NBA Finals. Kyrie is one of the best postseason players of his generation, and that hasn’t changed this season. However, he will now be squaring off against one of the best postseason defenders in Jrue Holiday.

Kyrie has been especially great of late, averaging 27 points and making 49% of his shots. That is impressive given he was matched up against a T-Wolves team whose elite defensive play led them to a top-seed in the West.  The former Celtic will be looking to make a statement against his former squad, so we fully expect to see the best version of Kyrie in the NBA Finals.

While Jrue Holiday was very good in the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs, he was elite in the Eastern Conference Finals. Holiday managed to average 18.5 points while making 58.7% of his shots. He also averaged 7.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Still, his most impressive accomplishment was helping to contain Haliburton on defense.

He’ll now face a similar challenge against Kyrie, and his ability to handle it could decide this series.