NBA Picks & Parlay of the Weekend | May 18

There is only one NBA game on the schedule Saturday, but it’s a big one. The Oklahoma City Thunder is set to visit the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Mavericks lead the series 3-2 in what has become the most compelling series of the postseason thus far. Dallas is favored at home, but we know that anything can happen. With just one game, the USA Legal Betting team is putting together a same-game parlay for Saturday’s matchup. We’re using odds from BetRivers, which is one of the best betting sites worth exploring.

Mavericks -4 | -109 at BetRivers

Early in the series, we believed that the Thunder was the better team, but that may not be the case anymore. Despite the best efforts of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Mavericks have started to get the better of OKC. Most importantly, the Thunder lost control of the series after a home loss in Game 5. Going on the road for a must-win game on Saturday night may not be what’s best for Oklahoma City.

Thus far, Oklahoma City’s supporting cast has underperformed compared to the regular season, making it hard to overcome the play of Luka Doncic. He’s undoubtedly the best player on the floor in every game. When he gets support from Kyrie Irving, the Dallas backcourt is elite and hard to beat. At times, this series looked destined to go seven games. However, the Mavericks aren’t going to let an opportunity to close out the series at home slip away. We’ll eat the points and lean toward Dallas to cover in Game 6.

Under 209.5 | -112 at BetRivers

The over/under in this series keeps moving down, just not far enough for us to take the over. Game 3 ended with 206 total points while the last two games ended with 196 total points each. The deeper we get into the series, the more intensity we see on the defensive side of the ball. With Oklahoma City now facing elimination and Dallas playing at home, that’s likely to continue.

Keep in mind that all of the Thunder’s top scorers are falling below their regular-season scoring average during the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have just three players averaging double figures during the postseason. There simply isn’t a lot of evidence that Game 6 could turn into a high-scoring affair, which is why we’ll stick with the under, which has hit four times in the first five games of this series.

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds | -155 at BetRivers

The actual over/under for Doncic in this game is 10.5 rebounds. But we’re going to play it safe because this is a parlay and accept the slightly lower odds. Outside of Game 1, Doncic has recorded at least 10 rebounds in every game of this series. That’s a big improvement after reaching that number just three times in six games during the previous round.

Obviously, the pressure in Game 6 is on Oklahoma City and not Dallas. But the Mavericks don’t want to risk playing Game 7 on the road. Doncic knows that Game 6 is the best opportunity to finish off the series. That means he’ll play 40-plus minutes and go hard for rebounds. Even with the Thunder scrapping for every rebound as well, it's hard to envision Doncic not matching his recent performances by collecting at least 10 rebounds.