NFL 2023 | Divisional Round
The Texans advanced after blowing out a Browns 45-14. CJ Stroud and the offense had no issue moving the ball against a Browns’ defense on the same level as the Ravens. That’s why we like Texans +9.5 today, but the Houston defense is why we are taking the Ravens’ moneyline. As well as the unit played last week, they will be facing MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson, which will be a much more challenging test than Joe Flacco.
The Ravens earned a first-round bye thanks to posting a 13-4 record. One of those losses came in Week 18 when they rested their starters. They are incredibly balanced on offense and defense, and that will be too much for a young Texans team to overcome. While the defense may struggle to slow CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson will take advantage of a Houston defense led by first and second-year players.
Texans injury report
Ravens injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
 | Texans +9.5 | -110 |
 | Texans ML | +360 |
 | Under 43.5 | -110 |
The Packers stunned the league after blowing out the Cowboys in Dallas for the Wild Card Round. Jordan Love has looked great, and he will have a chance to succeed again this weekend as he faces a Niners pass defense that allowed the fourteenth yards per game (214.2 YPG) and twenty-first in completion percentage (66.0%). If the Packers can move the ball through the air, it will force the Niners to do the same, limiting the damage Christian McCaffrey can do against their poor run defense. The Packs’ pass defense is outstanding, and we think they can do the job even if Jaire Alexander can’t go.
The Niners have been great, but most of their starters have not played since New Year’s Eve. We have seen the first-round bye backfire on great teams in the past, especially against a red-hot team like the Packers. While McCaffrey will do a lot of damage, we have seen Purdy show cracks this season against good pass defenses, which he will see on Sunday. While they are a heavy favorite to win the game and Super Bowl, we see them falling victim to a Packers team with momentum.
Packers injury report
49ers injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Packers +9.5 | -108 |
| Packers ML | +350 |
| Under 50.5 | -110 |
The Bucs and Baker Mayfield have been one of the season's best stories, but that will end on Sunday. While Tampa has won six of their last seven games, that stretch included two games with the Panthers, one with the Falcons, and one with the Jags. They beat an Eagles team at home in the Wild Card that had been awful over the last two months, leaving us unimpressed. Their luck will run out as they will face a far better Lions team in front of a crowd that will be electric.
The Lions did not finish the season as strong as they would have liked, but they were fantastic in the Wild Card Round. The NFC North champs beat a Rams team that had been playing as well as anyone. The defense did a great job containing them enough to allow Jared Goff and the offense to work. The Bucs offense is nowhere close to the Rams, and we think the Lions shut them down on Sunday.
Buccaneers injury report
Lions injury report
The Chiefs did a great job beating up the Dolphins in the Wild Card Round, but we aren’t sold on the team’s offensive issues being fixed. The Bills’ defense is good, and they can take away Rashee Rice, leaving Mahomes without a top receiver. While Travis Kelce is always a threat, he has been far from the dominant force he was in the past. There has been something wrong with the Chiefs’ offense all season, ranking fifteenth in scoring (21.8 PPG) after leading the league last season (29.2 PPG). AS good as their defense is, their offense will cost them the game on Sunday.
The Bills have been inconsistent this season, but they are one of the best teams in the NFL when they are clicking. That version showed up in their 31-17 win over the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. Josh Allen scored four total touchdowns and gained 74 yards on the ground. He and James Cook form an excellent run game and will play a significant role again as they face a Chiefs run defense that allows the nineteenth most rushing yards per game (104.9). While the Bills have some major injury issues, they have more than enough to get a home win against the Chiefs.
Chiefs injury report
Bills injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Bills +2.5 | -122 |
| Bills ML | -145 |
| Under 45.5 | -110 |
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