NFL 2023 | Week 14
Few teams are in a worse spot than the Patriots. Mac Jone seems to be out as the starting quarterback, with New England opting to start Billy Zappe. The quarterback change did nothing for the team’s lousy offense, as the Pats were shut out by a Chargers defense that ranks among the league’s worst last week. New England has a very solid defense, but they aren’t good enough to avoid many low-scoring losses thanks to the offense.
The Steelers are coming off a touch 24-10 home loss to the Cardinals. Their offensive struggles continue despite a solid performance from Mitch Trubisky after Kenny Pickett was injured. The good news is that the Steelers won’t have to score many points to beat the Patriots, thanks to TJ Watt and their defense. We think they find the end zone at least once, which will be enough to get the win on Sunday.
Patriots injury report
Steelers injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
 | Steelers -6 | -110 |
 | Steelers ML | -275 |
 | Under 30 | -110 |
This will be a must-win game for a Bucs team that is desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive. They barely held off the Panthers last week but have lost six of their eight previous games. Their offense has been inconsistent, while their defense has struggled. They lost 16-13 to the Bucs at home in October, and we see a similar result unfolding this weekend.
The Falcons somehow lead the NFC South after winning their previous two games. While their quarterback play continues to be an issue, their run game has led them to win six games this season. While the Bucs defend well against the run, the Falcons are averaging the sixth-most rushing yards per game (135.2). That will grind the Bucs’ defense down, allowing Atlanta to score just enough to get a close win.
Buccaneers injury report
Falcons injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Falcons -2.5 | -110 |
| Falcons ML | -135 |
| Under 39.5 | -113 |
The Lions are 9-3, but have not looked it over the last three weeks. They held off a comeback from the Saints last week, were run over by the Packers the week before, and needed a late rally to beat the Bears at home three weeks ago. Jared Goff looks awful, and the vaunted defense is showing some significant cracks. That is terrible news for this week’s matchup, as the Bears have arguably the best run defense in football. That will force them to pass, costing them Sunday’s NFC North game.
Chicago is coming off a Week 13 bye after pulling off an upset win against the Vikings the week before. The Bears’ defense has turned into a reliable unit, and their offense has found success with Justin Fields. He and DJ Moore have formed a very dangerous connection, and we see them continuing to find success against a Lions pass defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league (229.3 YDS/G).
Lions injury report
Bears injury report
The Rams have rallied over the last few weeks to win three straight games and return to the playoff race. With Kyren Williams back in the lineup, the offense gains the balance needed to be truly great. They showed that last week by putting up 36 points on a great Browns’ defense. Williams and the passing attack both found success, and we think they can repeat it this weekend against another great AFC North defense.
While we believe this game will be close, we see the Ravens getting the home win. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and Lamar Jackson has played well enough to cover for the loss of JK Dobbins. However, the loss of Mark Andrews is a big deal, and it showed in their 20-10 win against the Chargers. Baltimore doesn’t have many offensive weapons, and we think that leads to a close win against the Rams this weekend.
Rams injury report
Ravens injury report
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The Texans pulled off a big win against the Broncos last week and will look to stay hot against the Jets. They are still alive in the AFC South race, especially with Trevor Lawrence set to miss time possibly. We all know how great their offense has been, but the Texans, young defense is starting to step up. We see them putting up another outstanding effort on Sunday against a Jets team that can’t find a quarterback.
The Jets’ defense remains excellent, but they are starting to crumble due to the poor play of their own offense. Now, they are looking to remove Tim Boyle from the starting role, but Zach Wilson is apparently not willing to take the role back. That means the Jets will play an awful Boyle or be forced to start a reluctant Wilson. The lack of offense will make an easy challenge for the Texans’ defense, costing them yet another game.
Texans injury report
Jets injury report
The Bills were on a bye last week after losing three of their previous four games. All three losses came to good teams, which they will face in the Chiefs. The Kansas City defense will be able to contain Josh Allen and the Bills, taking away their most significant advantage. That will put a lot of pressure on their defense, which allowed 37 points to the Eagles in their last game.
The Chiefs lost their second game in the last three weeks in Green Bay on Sunday night. The defense has remained strong, but their offense is running into issues. Kansas City has been burned by their awful receiving corps, allowing defenses to focus on Travis Kelce. However, Rashee Rice is starting to turn into a reliable option. He has 16 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. We expect Rice to stay hot and help this offense return to form to get a key win at home on Sunday.
Bills injury report
Chiefs injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Chiefs -2.5 | -115 |
| Chiefs ML | -140 |
| Under 47.5 | -109 |
While the Eagles are coming off a blowout loss to the Niners, we think they will bounce back to beat the Cowboys this weekend. One reason is their run game, which D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts lead. The Cowboys’ defense is great, but their strength is against the pass. The Eagles will wear their run defense down, opening up the pass and leading to a big NFC East win for Philly.
The Cowboys’ stats are impressive on both sides of the ball, but we have not seen them beat good teams in 2023. They were blown out by the Niners in October and lost the Eagles last month. Every other game on their schedule was against teams with a record of .500 or worse, including an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. While they will be at home, we saw Dallas struggle mightly against an OK Seahawks team there last week. We think the Cowboys have another loss to a great team, making this an easy underdog bet to make.
Eagles injury list
Cowboys injury list
Few teams have been better than the Packers over the last few weeks. Jordan Love is now playing like a veteran while his young receiving corps is finding some rhythm. The offensive line has also improved, and their defense now ranks ninth in the league in opponent scoring (20.3 PTS/G). That makes them one of the most balanced teams in the NFC, and it will lead to an easy win over the Giants on Monday Night Football.
The Giants have won their last two games, but this is still a bad football team. Their wins came against bad teams in the Commanders and Pats, taking advantage of both struggling squads to steal a pair of wins. However, they will now face a reinvigorated Packers team that beat the Chiefs last week. The Packers have a lot to play for, and we think it leads to them running over a soft Giants team in prime time.
Packers injury list
Giants injury list
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Packers -6.5 | -115 |
| Packers ML | -300 |
| Under 37 | -110 |
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