NFL 2023 | Week 16
The Saints are currently outside the NFC playoff picture but will have a chance to change that this weekend against the Rams. While New Orleans has saved their season by winning their previous two games, they came against the Panthers and Giants. Six of the Saints' seven wins came against teams out of the playoffs, boosting their record. They consistently fall flat against playoff-caliber teams like the Rams and will do so again on Thursday.
The Rams are a team that no NFL team wants to face right now. Kyren Williams is establishing himself as the league’s top running back, rushing for 953 yards and eight touchdowns over just ten games. He will be a stiff challenge for the Saints, who rank twenty-fifth against the run (126.4 YPG). In addition to Williams, the Rams have a great passing game with Puka Nacua (1,163 YDS, 4 TD) and Cooper Kupp (658 YDS, 4 TD). The LA defense can be beaten, but the Saints will not be able to match the pace of their offense.
Saints injury report
Rams injury report
The Bengals have now won three straight games as backup quarterback Jake Browning has rallied the offense. They scored 95 points during that stretch, which has kept their playoff hopes alive. The Steelers' defense has been sliding of late, and we see Browning and his excellent receiver corps having no issues posting another big point total. While Cincinnati's defense is lousy, the Steelers' offense is too. We expect a high-scoring game that ends with a fourth straight win for the Bengals.
The Steelers have been trending in the wrong direction lately, losing three consecutive games and four of their last five. The loss of Kenny Pickett has had a more significant impact on a Pittsburgh offense averaging 13.4 points over their previous five games. While they will likely exceed that number against a horrid Bengals defense, it won’t be enough to get the win.
Bengals injury report
Steelers injury report
The Bills have won three of their previous four games but are currently ninth in the AFC. That's because this has been a team with two personalities. One side is elite and has shown up over the last few weeks to start the season. The other side is sloppy and went 3-5 in the middle of the season. As well as Buffalo is playing, we don’t trust them to keep it up. We think the Bills get the win, but not by 13 points.
The Chargers wasted another year of Justin Herbert this season, and it led to a change of head coach. Injuries put a cap on how much damage this team can do, but we do see them rallying after their embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders. Look for them to come out focused and challenge the Bills, but ultimately lose an ugly game.
Bills injury report
Chargers injury report
The Packers playoff chances have taken a significant hit over the last two weeks, thanks to losses to the Giants and Bucs. The offense has struggled, but the defense has regressed significantly. As bad as they have looked, we see them bouncing back this weekend. We’ve seen how well this team can play, and they will show it against a horrendous Panthers team on Sunday.
Carolina won their second game of the season last week in an ugly game against the Falcons. Their defense has been better than the get credit four, allowing the third-fewest yards per game in the NFL (291.6 YPG). However, they are twenty-ninth in the league in opponent scoring (24.9 PPG). That is primarily a result of their poor offense, and it will cost them yet another loss on Sunday.
Rams injury report
Panthers injury report
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
 | Packers -4.5 | -115 |
 | Packers ML | -240 |
 | Under 36.5 | -115 |
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The Lions got a badly-needed win last week against the Broncos. The win helped secure their NFC North title and featured a solid bounce-back performance for their defense. The Lions' defense was one of the best units in football to begin the year, but they have been lit up by bad teams in the second half of the season. The Vikings remain without Kirk Cousins, so we expect another impressive showing from the Detroit defense.
The Vikings' secondary was their major weakness at the beginning of the season, but they had been turning things around over the last month. That ended last week in their 27-24 loss to the Bengals. Minnesota let backup quarterback Jake Browning threw for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Now, they will face one of the league’s most dangerous passing attacks, leading to a lopsided loss on Sunday.
Lions injury report
Vikings injury report
The Cowboys had a rough night against the Bills last week. They lost 31-10, ending a five-game win streak with people believing they might be the league’s top team. It's been a familiar story all season, with Dallas getting punched in the mouth against many of the league’s top teams. Stopping Miami’s offense will be a big challenge, but so will moving the ball against their defense. Miami’s pass defense is great and will land Prescott with another poor outing.
The Dolphins are hard to beat, especially at home. The warm weather allows them to use their speedy playmakers to work quickly, making life hard even on the league’s best defenses. We saw that last week in their 30-0 win against a great Jets defense. The Cowboy's defense is good, but they have allowed 31+ points in two of their last three games. We see Miami winning, but check on Tyreek Hill’s status before placing your bets.
Cowboys injury report
Dolphins injury report
Sportsbook
The Raiders are still bad, but they have played better under head coach Antonio Pierce. They are coming off their best game of the season, beating the Chargers 63-21. Aidan O’Connell threw for four touchdowns in the win but only completed 58.8% of his passes. As impressive as the Raiders were, they faced a Chargers team that seemed checked out for most of the game. While we don’t expect them to add another win on Sunday, we expect them to keep this game relatively close.
Things have not been going well for the Chiefs of late. While they were able to beat the Pats last week, they have lost to the Bills, Packers, and Eagles over the previous five weeks. This team has a glaring hole at the wide receiver position, and it's killing their offense. Defenses are keying in on Kelce, which has led him to have one of his worst seasons. The Raiders don’t have the defensive talent to shut Kelce down completely, but they will do enough to keep this close.
Raiders injury list
Chiefs injury list
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Raiders +10 | -110 |
| Chiefs ML | -480 |
| Under 41.5 | -110 |
The Ravens are the most complete team in all of football. Lamar Jackson has helped cover for injuries on the offense, and the defense is arguably the best in the league. One reason is their pass rush, which leads the NFL with 50 sacks for 392 yards. They are a nightmare for opposing defenses and can rattle Brock Purdy. While they will be on the road and up against a great Niners team, we think the Ravens' pass rush will give them enough of an edge to get an impressive road win.
The Niners have now won six straight games and installed themselves as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII. As well as they have played, they did show some cracks in October when they lost three straight games. They have improved since then, but it shows that the team has some weak spots. Brock Purdy may be one of those on Sunday as he attempts to stay composed in the face of an unrelenting Baltimore pass rush.
Ravens injury list
49ers injury list
| Sportsbook | Pick | Odds |
| Ravens +5.5 | -110 |
| Ravens ML | +185 |
| Under 46.5 | -108 |
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