NFL 2023 Week 5 – Odds, Predictions & Picks

We have four weeks of the NFL season in the books, and a lot has been learned about these teams. We have seen the league’s best and worst teams separate themselves from the pack, and this week’s slate of games should tell us even more about where the stand.

Our experts at  USAlegalbetting.com have been studying each team over the first few weeks, and they are sharing their favorite eight bets heading into Week 4.

Below, we will share their picks, along with odds and insights, to help you win big at NFL betting sites this weekend.

Odds provided by DraftKings

The Bears once again proved they are the worst team in football by allowing a massive second-half comeback to the lowly Broncos last week. The team wasted their offense's best effort, landing them with their fourth loss of the year. While Washington’s defense isn’t good, their offense is. Look for Fields and running back Khalil Herbert to have good games but for the Bears to be outdueled by a superior Washington offense.

The Commanders are having some major issues on defense, but their offense has shown they are better than their numbers indicate. That was on display last week in their overtime loss to the Eagles, who scored 31 points against the NFC champs on the road. Now, the Commanders will be back home and up against a defense that is nowhere close to what they saw on Sunday. Look for them to cruise up and down the field, leading to a win. 

Bears injury report

• Teven Jenkins OT - IR
• Chase Claypool WR - Out
• Jaquan Brisker S - Q
• Eddie Jackson S- O 
• Jaylon Johnson CB - O 

Commanders injury report

• Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Commanders -5.5	-110
	Commanders ML	-265
	Over 44.5	-110

The Jaguars have not looked like the same team that they were in 2022. Their two wins have come against the Colts and Falcons, and one of their losses was a 37-17 blowout to the Texans. The offense has been average, but the defense has shown some serious cracks through their first four games. They allowed Bijan Robinson to average 7.5 YPC last week, which is an ugly number considering the lack of a Falcons passing attack.

We usually don’t love betting on teams coming off monster wins (i.e., Miami), but this Bills team has looked head and shoulders above the rest of the AFC over the last three weeks. The defense has smothered opponents, including the Dolphins last week. Josh Allen has also been playing at an MVP level since an ugly opening-week effort, and he will have no problem picking apart a weak Jags defense this week.

Jaguars injury report

• Parker Washington WR - D
• Jamal Agnew WR - Q
• Zay Jones WR - Q
• Antonio Johnson S - Q
• Dawuane Smoot LB - PUP

Bills injury report

• Von Miller LB - PUP
• Christian Benford CB - Q
• Greg Rousseau DE - Q
• Damien Harris RB - Q
• Dawson Knox TE - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Bills -5.5	-110
	Bills ML	-225
	Over 48.5	-110

Don’t look now, but this Texans team is pretty good. CJ Stroud has the fourth-most passing yards in the league (1,212) and has the ninth-best passer rating (100.6). On defense, they have allowed just 23 points over their last two games, six of which came from their win over the Steelers on Sunday. That defense will have no problem handing a Falcons team that has scored 13 points over their last two games, leading to an upset road win and a share of the AFC South lead.

Atlanta started the season strong but has come crashing back down to earth over the last two weeks. They have been outscored 53-13 during that stretch, including their 23-7 loss to the Jags on Sunday. We saw the Texans demolish that same Jags team the week before, which is a sign Atlanta will be overwhelmed once again this weekend.

Texans injury report

• Denzel Perryman LB - Q
• Laremy Tunsil OT - Q
• Tavierre Thomas CB - Q
• Cameron Johnston P - IR
• Kendrick Green C - IR

Falcons injury report

• Josh Ali WR - IR

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Texans + 2	-110
	Texans ML	+110
	Under 41.5	-110

The Saints' defense has shown they are one of the best in the league, but they did not look like it against Baker Mayfield on the Bucs on Sunday. They let former Brown throw for 246 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, allowing the Bucs to move down the field even after Mike Evans left the game. The Saints offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points this season, and we don’t see that changing against a very good Pats defense tonight.

The Pats' defense won’t have an issue shutting the Saints down this week, but their offense is reeling after a brutal showing against Dallas last week. As awful as their offensive game plan has been, Mac Jones has shown he can make some big plays. That is all it will take against the Saints on Sunday, as they won’t need much to outpace the Saints’ offense.

Saints injury report

•  Paulson Adebo CB - Q
•  Jordan Howden S - Q
•  Foster Moreau TE - Q
•  Cesar Ruiz C - Q
•  Derek Carr QB - Q

Patriots injury report

•  Christian Gonzalez CB - D
•  Christian Barmore DT - Q
•  Ty Montgomery II WR - Q
•  Shaun Wade CB - Q
•  Rhamondre Stevenson RB - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Pats +1	-115
	Pats ML	-118
	Under 40	-110

As good as the Eagles are, there are some emerging questions about their secondary. They have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league. We saw them get exposed again last week as they allowed Sam Howell and the Commanders to score 31 points. They will face a much more formidable challenge on Sunday, especially with Cooper Kupp expected to return for LA. Three of the Eagles' four wins have been by less than seven points, and we see their luck running out tonight.

The Rams have surprised a lot of people early on in 2024. Their offense has far surpassed expectations, thanks to the emergence of receivers Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell and running back Kyren Williams. Now, Cooper Kupp will be returning to action, giving the Rams arguably the best-receiving corps in the NFC. We are worried about Stafford’s hip, but we still see him taking advantage of a struggling Eagles pass defense.

Eagles injury report

•  Cam Jurgens C - D 
•  Sydney Brown S - Q
•  Justin Evans S - Q
•  Quez Watkins WR - Q
•  Nakobe Dean LB - IR

Rams injury report

•  Matthew Stafford QB - Q
• Kyren Williams RB - Q
• Tyler Higbee TE - Q
• Alaric Jackson OT - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Rams +4.5	-115
	Rams ML	+180
	Under 50.5	-110

The Jets had their hearts broken last week, but they will build off their improved play to get a win in Denver. One big reason for that is Zach White, who looked like a totally different player on Sunday. That effort came against a good Chiefs defense, and now he’ll face a Broncos defense that allowed Justin Fields to have a career day. Add that to the Jets' fantastic defense, and we see an upset in Denver on Sunday.

If the Broncos were playing anyone other than the Bears last week, they would have lost. Chicago’s floundering defense allowed them to score 24 second-half points, helping them pull off an upset victory. Denver also benefited from poor coaching from Chicago that allowed them to win with a final field goal. Even if running back Javonte Williams can go, this offense won’t have enough to overcome the Jets.

Jets injury report

•  Tony Adams S - Q
•  Wes Schweitzer G - Q
•  Brandin Echols CB - O

Broncos injury report

•  Frank Clark LB - Q
•  Josey Jewell LB - Q
•  Mike Purcell DT - Q
•  Justin Simmons S - Q
•  Javonte Williams RB - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Jets +1.5	-105
	Jets ML	+110
	Under 43	-110

The Cowboys bounced back from a Week 3 loss to demolish the Pats at home last week. However, we still aren’t sold on this Dak Prescott-led offense. Tony Pollard has been their most dangerous weapon, but the Niners have one of the best-run defenses in the country. That will force Dak to shoulder the load, which is rarely a recipe for a Cowboys win. We think the Dallas offense stumbles on the road in prime time, dropping a pivotal game to a top NFC rival.

The Niners avoided an upset against the Cardinals on the weekend and now sit at 4-0. They have scored at least 30 points in each game, and Christian McCaffrey is playing like an MVP. Dallas ranks among the middle of the pack in run defense, meaning CMC should have plenty of chances to break big plays. Considering Brock Purdy’s solid play behind center, we are confident the Niners will win at home on Sunday night.

Cowboys injury report

•  Zack Martin G - Q
•  Micah Parsons LB - Q
•  Tyron Smith OT - Q
•  Peyton Hendershot TE - Q
•  Rico Dowdle RB - Q

49ers injury report

•  Jon Feliciano G - Q
•  Deebo Samuel WR - Q
•  Elijah Mitchell RB - Q
•  Jauan Jennings WR - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	49ers -3.5	-110
	49ers ML	-185
	Under 45	-110

Another slow start from the Packers led to a critical loss to the Lions last week, but we expect them to bounce back in a big way. One reason is that Green Bay will undoubtedly get Aaron Jones more involved. He had just five carries last week, and coach Matt LaFleur acknowledged that was a mistake. Jones has looked great when he has played, and we think he has a monster night against the Raiders on Monday.

Vegas is not a good football team, regardless of whether Jimmy G is healthy. Their defense is decent, but their offense has not scored points in 2023. They have not scored more than 18 points this season, which includes games against the Chargers and Broncos. The Packers' defense can be good, and they can handle this weak Vegas offense without much issue.

Packers injury report

•  Zayne Anderson S - Q
•  De'Vondre Campbell LB - Q
•  Elgton Jenkins G - Q
•  Luke Musgrave TE - Q
•  Eric Stokes CB - PUP

Raiders injury report

•  Curtis Bolton LB - IR
•  David Long Jr. CB - Q
•  Jimmy Garoppolo QB - Q
•  Nate Hobbs CB - Q

Bookmaker	Pick	Odds
	Packers -1	-122
	Packers ML	-116
	Under 44.5	-110

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