NFL 2023 | Week 11
The Bengals saw their four-game win streak be broken last week, and we think they add another loss on Thursday. One big reason is that their defense still has a lot of holes, especially against the run. Cincinnati ranks thirtieth in rushing yards per game (136.2), which will be a problem against a Ravens team that leads the league in rushing. While the Bengals’ offense is good, the Ravens’ defense is elite and will make life very hard for Joe Burrow.
This is a very good Ravens team, despite their collapse last weekend. Their offense and defense both rank in the top ten in yardage and scoring, showing just how much balance this team has. While they don’t generate too many turnovers, they do lead the league in sacks (39). Look for their pass rush to force Burrow into making mistakes against their pass defense, which allows the fourth yards per game (173.1).
Bengals injury report
Ravens injury report
The Bears may be getting a big boost this week as Justin Fields has returned to practice after missing since being injured in Week 6. We think he could lead the Bears to a possible upset due to his play before the injury. If he doesn’t, we think Tyson Bagent is at least able to keep this game within 10 points. There is a lot wrong with the Bears, but they have been able to do damage against bad pass defenses, which they will face on Sunday.
This is a very good Lions team that has won four of their previous five games. However, the last three games have not been pretty. That includes last week when they edged out the Chargers 41-38. They were better against a bad Raiders offense but allowed 38 points to the Ravens the week before. Their inability to stop the pass is a problem, and we think the Bears can do enough to expose it to keep things close.
Bears injury report
Lions injury report
The Chargers offense continues to impress, but their pass defense is the worst in all of football. While that is costing them a lot of games, it won’t be as big of a factor this weekend as they face Jordan Love. While we expect the offense to struggle against a surprisingly good Green Bay defense, we think the Chargers’ defense is able to help them to a low-scoring win.
The Packers have looked a little better over the last two weeks, but this is a bad team. The offense has scored more than 19 just once in their previous five games. The offense is unable to make big plays, even with Aaron Jones back on the field. Their saving grace is their defense, but they aren’t good enough to cover for the teams' offensive struggles. While the LA defense is bad, the Packers just don’t have the weapons to capitalize on it.
Chargers injury report
Packers injury report
The Raiders look like a different team since firing head coach Josh McDaniels, but that will end this weekend. Vegas’s success came at home against the Giants and Jets, two teams that lack competent offenses. Now they will be up against the best offense in the league on the road, and we think it leads to them crashing back down to earth. Look for the Raiders’ secondary to get picked apart while their offense struggles against a greatly improved Miami unit.
The Dolphins come in having lost two of their last three games, but they came against the Eagles and Chiefs. The Raiders are worse than those teams on both sides of the ball, and we have seen Miami demolish similar teams this season. Considering that Jalen Ramsey is finally healthy and that running back De’Von Achane set to return this week, this Miami team will have no problem covering this large spread.
Raiders injury report
Dolphins injury report
The Cardinals saw Kyler Murray return to the field for the first time in almost a year, and he did not disappoint. The 26-year-old threw for 249 yards and scored on touchdown on the ground. His accuracy was bad, completing 59.4% of his passes and throwing one interception. It will take time for him to settle in, especially considering the lack of playmakers on the Arizona offense. Kyler will score some points, but he won’t be able to carry this team to a victory on Sunday.
The Texans now sit at 5-4 and their young playmakers are starting to evolve into bonafide stars. CJ Stroud has been red hot, throwing for 826 yards and six touchdowns over his last two games. He is forming strong connections with several receivers, including Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown. Last week saw them have their best rushing game thanks to Devin Singletary, making this offense too much for Arizona to handle.
Cardinals injury report
Texans injury report
The Jets made an impressive run without Aaron Rodgers, but they have come crashing back down to earth over the last two weeks. Their offense is once again broken, scoring just 18 points over their last two games. Zach Wilson’s inability to make big plays has allowed defenses to shut down Breece Hall and the run game. As good as the New York defense is, they can’t overcome an offense that is this bad.
We like the Bills to get the win, but their play over the last six weeks has been awful. They have lost three of their last four games, thanks to a failed hail mary by the Bucs. The defense is solid, but Josh Allen and the offense are not right. Allen’s accuracy issues from college have resurfaced, and it has led to the collapse of the offense. The Bills have the talent to win, but we don’t trust them to cover this spread.
Jets injury report
Bills injury report
The Vikings have won five straight games as they continue to push for an unlikely playoff spot. Josh Dobbs has thrived in the two games since being traded to Minnesota, throwing for 426 yards and a combined five touchdowns. Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson have stepped up with Justin Jefferson out. The Vikings’ defense has also been playing better of late, holding opponents to under 20 points in four of his previous five games. While Denver has improved, we still see Minnesota as the better team.
Speaking of Denver improving, they have now won three games in a row. The key to their success has been the defense, with Russell Wilson doing just enough on offense to support them. They have beaten good teams, but we still haven’t seen enough to believe their success can continue. Look for them to keep this game close, but lose to the hotter team this weekend.
Vikings injury list
Broncos injury list
The Eagles own the best record in football and will be looking for payback for their loss to the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl. The offense is great and the run defense is the best in the league, but there are major problems in the Eagles secondary. Philly ranks twenty-eighth in passing yards allowed per game (257.0). That is a big problem to have against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, and it will lead to another loss to the Chiefs on Monday.
The Chiefs are one of the most balanced teams in the league. They are top ten in the league in yards gained, yards allowed, and opponent scoring. Their defense is one of the one of the best in the league, no longer relying on Chris Jones as their sole pass rusher. While the lack of wide receivers is concerning, Mahomes is good enough to overcome it. Look for the quarterback to thrive against a bad Eagles pass defense, leading to another win for the Chiefs.
Eagles injury list
Chiefs injury list
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