MLB Betting: The Three Most Profitable Starting Pitchers of 2023

Michael Savio pic
By:
Michael Savio
05/25/2023
News

Highlights

  • Brayan Bello has been the most profitable starting pitcher in 2023
  • All three starters are in the back end of their rotations
  • Dean Kremer has a 1.96 ERA in May

Any true baseball fan knows who the top pitchers are this season. However, a strong season from a pitcher does not always equal profits for bettors that back them. The most profitable arms are instead pitchers that bookmakers undervalue in matchup, but still find ways to win.

Below we will review the three most profitable starting pitchers so far in 2023. We have determined this based simply off moneyline bets, determining which starters have contributed to the biggest payouts. We’ll look at how they have succeeded, what their profits are, and discuss their prospects for the remainder of the season.

Without further ado, let’s get to the list!

#1 Brayan Bello – Boston Red Sox

The 24-year-old Red Sox starter isn’t having a great season from a statistical level, but the team has won five of his six starts this season. That includes impressive wins over teams like Atlanta, Toronto, and Milwaukee. Bello (3-1, 4.45 ERA) has turned a +529 profit so far in 2023.

While it’s hard to gauge how Bellow will do in his first full big league season, but we don’t expect his profitability to last. One big reason is that the young pitcher hasn’t been able to go deep into games, going past the fifth inning just once this season. Another reason is that he has allowed two or fewer runs in his last five starts (all went 5+ innings). Bookmakers will stop undervaluing Bello, which will cut into his profits for the remainder of the season.

#2 Dean Kremer – Baltimore Orioles

Kremer (5-1, 4.61 ERA) is in his fourth season in the big leagues and has been a bit shaky in 2023. While his record has led to a lot of wins for bettors at the sportsbook (+500 profit), his ERA shows that it has been a bit of a struggle. However, he owns a 1.96 ERA in May and seems to be turning things around. He isn’t going deep into games, but his ability to limit runs behind a hot Baltimore offense has led to a lot of wins.

While Baltimore’s moneyline odds won’t be as good as they have been for Kremer, we still see him offering a lot of value. He is in the back half of this rotation, which is usually when the Orioles would be underdogs. Kremer has been sharp this month, looking more like the pitcher he was in 2022. With an impressive offense supporting him and a lot of tough matchups in the AL East, we think he could end the season as the most profitable starting pitcher.

#3 Braxton Garrett – Miami Marlins

Braxton (1-2, 4.60 ERA) is a close third on this list, with a profit of +491 in 2023. Braxton is a back-end starter that has been getting help from the Marlins bullpen most of the season. He is averaging less than five innings per start this season. However, he has been sharp in limited time. He’s had a couple of ugly starts but has allowed two or less runs in seven of his nine starts this season. 

While Garrett should provide some great odds throughout the season, we don’t see his profitability remaining so high up on this list. The biggest reason for that is his record, which is just 2-1 in nine starts this season. That means he is not factoring into many decisions, instead relying on the Marlins bullpen and offense to get moneyline wins. Neither the bullpen nor offense can be relied upon, which is going to cost Kremer a lot of profit throughout the season.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.