MLB Betting: The Three Most Profitable Teams Against the Run Line in 2023

Michael Savio pic
By:
Michael Savio
07/28/2023
News

Highllights

  • The Rangers have covered 53.7% of run lines as a favorite this season
  • Arizona has won just three games since the All-Star break
  • The Rays now trail the Orioles by 1.5 games in the AL East

If you are a fan of MLB betting you know that betting on run-line favorites is one of the best ways to boost your profits. Now that the first half of the season is in the books, we have just three teams that are covering 50% or more run lines as the favorite this season (minimum of 50 games to qualify). 

Below we will be breaking down each team, recapping their year so far, and projecting their future to help you win more run line bets in the MLB’s second half.

Texas Rangers – 53.7% Cover Percentage

The Rangers leading this list is not a surprise to those who have been following the league. Texas shocked many by jumping out to a hot start, and they have not looked back since. The Rangers are 36-31 as a run line favorite this season, winning players a lot of money.

The reason for their success has been their impressive balance. Their pitching staff continues to overperform without ace Jacob deGrom, thanks to career-years from Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning. The Rangers also have one best lineup in baseball, led by stars like Corey Seager, Adolis Garica, and Marcus Semien.

We like the Rangers to keep this cover percentage strong through the second half of the season, though we may avoid them over the next couple of weeks. Seager has been out with a thumb injury and will miss at least one more week. His injury coincided with a slump for the Rangers, so we recommend waiting to jump on their bandwagon until the star is back.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 52.0% Cover Percentage

Arizona led the NL West for most of the season before turning it over to LA after the All-Star break. Things have been ugly for the D-backs of late as they were swept by the Blue Jays and Reds. While that has been ugly, they also took a series from the Braves one week ago, showing they can still compete with the league’s best teams. 

The D-Backs' surprising season is primarily due to their elite stars. Zac Gallen is the team’s ace, and FanDuel Sportsbook has him as the betting favorite to win the 2023 NL Cy Young (+200). Arizona also has an MVP candidate in 22-year-old Corbin Carroll, who has a rare combination of power, speed, and ability to hit for average. The young star is just getting started but has already impressed in his rookie season in the MLB.

We are avoiding the Diamondback’s run lines for the second half of the season. They have a lot of tough series ahead of them, and we don’t think Arizona is as good as they showed earlier this season. If you are looking for reliable run line bets, we recommend sticking with the other two teams on this list.

Tampa Bay – 50.0% Cover Percentage

The Rays continue to impress in 2023 but have cooled off over the summer. They now trail the Orioles by 1.5 games after losing three of four games to them last week. The Rays were also swept on the road by the Rangers, further dropping their record. However, we have much more faith in the Rays than in the D-Backs.

While Tampa has been in a slump, they still own one of the most balanced rosters in baseball. Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Wander Franco have all been mentioned as MVP candidates as they continue to impress in 2023. Tampa also has one of the best young aces in the league, Shane McClanahan. We expect Tampa to be busy at the trade deadline, which could lead to another boost to their starting rotation, further cementing them as one of baseball’s elite teams. 

The Rays are covering 50% of their games as a favorite, and we see that holding true for the remainder of the season. They have the roster to beat anyone, but they also play in the toughest division in baseball, the AL East. Pick your Rays run lines carefully, but there will be plenty of great chances to capitalize on them in the second half of the season. 

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.