NFL Betting: The Three Factors to Know Before Betting on the AFC Championship Game

Football News Article


  • Lamar Jackson threw for 3,678 yards and completed 67.2% of his passes
  • The Chiefs finished fifteen in the league in scoring after leading last season
  • Baltimore finished the season ranked fourth in scoring and first in opponent scoring

The AFC divisional round set us up for a thrilling Conference Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams have been powerhouses in the AFC for years, but this will be the first time they will meet in the conference’s final game.

Below, we will share the three most important factors to know before betting on this exciting NFL playoff matchup. We’ll give you everything you need to bet confidently on the Sunday’s game at NFL betting sites.

AFC Championship Odds

The Niners enter the game as a home favorite. Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook:





Kansas City Chiefs 

+3.5 (-115) 


Over 44.5 (-110) 

Baltimore Ravens 

-3.5 (-105) 


Under 44.5 (-110 

#1 Lamar Jackson Set Career Highs in Passing Yards and Completion Percentage 

This was Lamar Jackson’s best season from a passing perspective. He finished with career-high totals in passing yards (3,678) and completion percentage (67.2%). Some of that was due to his ability to stay healthy, but we saw a different version of Lamar Jackson this season. He has been accurate, despite lacking the offensive weapons of other contenders.

On top of his success through the air, the MVP-favorite also has been fantastic running the ball. Jackson finished with 821 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The Ravens were hoping to limit his carriers this season, but an early injury to JK Dobbins led to Jackson being the team’s top rusher yet again.

Jackson’s ability to run the ball and complete passes make him well-suited for the cold weather of Baltimore.

#2 The Chiefs Have Scored 53 Points in Two Playoff Games 

A lot of people did not expect the Chiefs to reach another AFC Championship game, largely due to their offense. While Patrick Mahomes has been his usually self, his receiving corps was a nightmare. The lack of weapons led to a lot of drops and allowed defenses to key in on Travis Kelce.

The result was the Chiefs finishing fifteenth in the league in scoring (21.8 PPG) after leading the league last season (29.2 PPG). However, things have been different in the playoffs. The team has scored a combined 53 points, despite difficult weather conditions.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice is a big reason for the turnaround. He gives the Chiefs a legitimate playmaker, leading the team with 177 yards in the postseason. Defenses now must account for the emerging star, which is allowing Kelce more room to work. The Ravens pass defense is elite, but they will have their hands full with Rice.

#3 The Ravens Outscored Their Opponents 183-103 in Last Five Wins

Not counting their Week 18 loss when they were resting their starters, the Ravens have dominated their last five games, outscoring their opponents 183-103. That stat is even more impressive when you consider they faced the Rams (37-31), Jags (23-7), Niners (33-19), Dolphins (56-19), and Texans (34-10).

Baltimore’s strong end to the season comes as little surprise. The team finished fourth in the league in scoring (28.4 PPG). Lamar Jackson is the driving force behind the success, allowing the unit to thrive even after losing Mark Andrews and JK Dobbins. 

The team’s offensive success alone is good enough to win games, but they also have one of the league’s best defenses. The Ravens led the league in opponent scoring, allowing just 16.5 points per game. That gives them a scoring differential of over 12 points, showing exactly why this team has been a popular Super Bowl pick.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.