NFL Betting: The Two Best Super Bowl Longshot Bets After Week 5

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  • The Lions are sixth in the league in yards gained and yards allowed
  • Detroit is hopeful safety CJ Gardner-Johnson will return before the playoffs
  • Burrow finished with 317 yards and three touchdowns while completing 78.3% of his passes on Sunday

If you are looking to bet on a longshot to win the Super Bowl, now is the best time to do so. We have seen five weeks of the NFL season and now have a good idea of where many of these teams stand. Bookmakers still have valuable odds for many contenders, meaning there is money to be made.

Our experts have picked two teams that NFL betting sites consider to be longshots to win the league’s top prize. Below, we will give odds and insights into why they like each team, giving you what you need to maximize your longshot Super Bowl bet.

Detroit Lions

Odds to win Super Bowl: +1800 at FanDuel Sportsbook

This will likely be the best price you will get on the Lions of the remainder of the season, and we aren’t going to miss out. While their high-flying offense gained them notoriety in 2022, they have been one of the most balanced teams in the league this season. They rank sixth in the league in yards gained (384.4 YDS/G) and yards allowed (292.8 YDS/G), which has led them to a 4-1 start in 2023.

The offense looks great once again, thanks in part to a pair of rookies in TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. LaPorta has already established himself as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league, and added another 47 yards and two touchdowns last week. Gibbs missed last week with an injury, but he is averaging 4.6 yards per carry over his four games.

On defense, the Lions are as good at stopping the run as anyone else in the NFL. They are allowing 68.4 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and have surrendered three touchdowns. However, things have not gone as well against the pass, where the rank in the bottom half of the league. Those problems weren’t helped by cornerback Emmanuel Moseley’s injury on Sunday.

The reason we like the Lions as a longshot bet is that we think their talent on offense and against the run will help them overcome issues in their secondary. Their schedule is soft, and they play in a bad NFC North division, which should help them easily secure a postseason trip.

The biggest X-factor for a Lions’ Super Bowl run is the health of CJ Gardner-Johnson. The safety was signed by Detroit in the offseason to boost their secondary, but he tore a pectoral muscle in the team’s second game. The injury landed him on IR with no timetable to return, but the team is hopeful he will return before the end of the regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Odds to win Super Bowl: +2800 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Personally, we were stunned to see the Bengals’ price from US sportsbooks. While an ugly start has them ranked thirty-first in yards gained per game (264.8 YDS/G) and twentieth in yards allowed (350.2 YDS/G), things turned around in their win against Arizona last week. The team seemed to break out of their funk, turning in one of the best performances of Week 5.

The top reason we love this bet is the play of quarterback Joe Burrow. A calf injury had hampered him in their first four games, leading to people questioning if he should even be on the field. Cincinnati insisted Burrow was getting better despite playing, and we saw that on display on Sunday. Burrow finished with 317 yards and three touchdowns while completing 78.3% of his passes, all of which were season highs.

A healthy Burrow means the Bengals’ elite receiving corps will once again be a threat, as we saw with Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. The elite pass catcher finished with 192 yards and three touchdowns on 15 receptions. They were without Tee Higgins, making Chase’s dominance even more impressive. The Bengals’ pass attack among the best in the league and could be enough to lead this team to a Super Bowl.

The X-factor for Cincinnati will be the play of their defense. They have struggled, but the team’s poor play on offense made life much harder for this unit. They will likely never be great, but they have the talent to support this offense enough to get a lot of wins, and possibly even a Super Bowl title.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.