NFL Betting: How Does the Aaron Rodgers Injury Change the AFC East Race?

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Michael Savio
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  • Aaron Rodgers will miss the season after an Achilles tendon tear
  • Miami is the betting favorite to win the division at +135
  • The Jets defeated the Bills on Monday night

The Jets new and improved offense came crashing down on their fourth play Monday night when Rodgers left with an Achilles tear. While the Jets won the game, the injury changes the power dynamic in the loaded AFC East. NFL betting sites have shifted their odds, showing they believe this is now a two-team race.

Below, we will be breaking down where all four team stand after week 1, and how the Rodgers injury will affect each.

Miami Dolphins (1-0)

Odds to win AFC East: +135 at BetMGM Sportsbook 

Miami has now established themselves as the favorite to win the AFC East, thanks to an impressive win against the Charges on Sunday. The combination of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill looks to be near unstoppable in an offensive with a lot of playmakers. The defense also looked dangerous, making health their biggest threat going forward.

Miami and the Jets saw their odds much closer coming into the season, as many wondered if the Miami offense could overcome the Jets defense. While Tua the Dolphins could still struggle against them, the lack of offensive firepower takes away that advantage for the Jets. Unless Zach Wilson breaks out this season, Miami should have a great chance to go 2-0 in their series.

Buffalo Bills (0-1)

Odds to win AFC East: +145 at BetMGM Sportsbook

The Bills remain a top favorite to win the division, but they did not play well against the Jets on Monday. Josh Allen threw three interceptions and was sacked five times, and just one player finished with over 32 receiving yards. The Jets defense is great, but the Bills offense is expected to be elite. They should have taken this game over after Rodgers left, but instead lost by six points.

The Bills may be the team that benefits the least from the injury, as they already lost to a Jets team without him. They should be able to take care of the Jets when they meet in Buffalo, but they’ll need to figure out their offense. They will also need to address their run defense, which allowed the Jets to rush for 172 yard and average 6.1 yards per attempt.

New York Jets (1-0)

Odds to win AFC East: +550 at BetMGM Sportsbook

The silence at MetLife Stadium was deafening as medical personnel rushed onto the field to assess Rodgers. This is the best team they have had in recent memory, but that was largely thanks to the addition of the four-time MVP winner. The good news is that their defense looks even better than expected, and Breece Hall was dominant, meaning all may not be lost.

The Jets will now need to decide what to do at the quarterback position. We saw the lack of reliable play at the position cost them in 2022, and they have spent money signing players just to pair with Rodgers. If Zach White struggles, don’t be surprised if the Jets make a move to add another quarterback.

New England Patriots (0-1)

Odds to win AFC East: +900 at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Patriots lost their series opener to the Eagles, they gave themselves a chance to win at the end. Their ability to keep the game close against the reigning NFC champions shows that they have taken a step forward this season. However, it is clear their offense still needs work to support Mac Jones and the rest of their playmakers. 

With the Jets possibly vulnerable, an improved New England team will find themselves with two games that are suddenly more winnable, and they will have a leg up for an AFC wildcard spot. While we don’t think this makes them a true candidate to win the division, the Pats could be the ones who capitalize the most from a suddenly quarterback-less Jets team.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.