San Diego State Faces UConn to end the NCAA Tournament and Determine Who Ends up Being this Year’s National Champion

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  • UConn’s been dominating the NCAA Tournament with each win coming by double digits.
  • San Diego State’s on a miracle run to the title game, and the got here on a buzzer-beater in their last game to punctuate that run.
  • These are two very unlikely teams to get to this point in this season and now we’ll see if UConn’s dominance stays, or San Diego State’s miracle run keeps going.

San Diego State faces off against UConn to cap off one of the craziest NCAA Tournaments we’ve ever seen. Both schools have taken very different roads to get to this point. In their last game, the Aztecs needed a miracle buzzer-beater to escape in the Final Four against Florida Atlantic, 72-71, while UConn continued their dominant Tournament run and beat Miami (FL) 72-59. The storylines in this game are that UConn could cement themselves as one of the newer blue bloods in college basketball or San Diego State makes history by bringing the Mountain West their first basketball title and giving the West Coast their first title since 1997.

9:20 pm. ET: San Diego State vs UConn (-7.5) – NCAA Tournament Title Game – CBS 

Spread & Over/Under Analysis: 

The betting favorite in this game is UConn with the Huskies being listed as 7.5-point favorites across sportsbooks. DraftKings and FanDuel have identical odds with the Huskies being 7.5-point favorites, but FanDuel has UConn at -104, while San Diego State is at -118 on the spread. 

UConn is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and has an average scoring margin of +20.6 in the NCAA Tournament. On the other side, San Diego State has been good, but they needed a miracle shot at the buzzer in their last game just to be in this spot.

The over/under being set at 132.5 means that oddsmakers are expecting a sloppy and defensive-minded game. These two defenses are two of the best in all of college basketball, with each being in the top-10 of the country, so it’s fair to expect a rock-fight of a game with physicality being a huge factor for both teams.

Betting Trends: 

Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. 

Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Overall Preview: 

Can anyone stop UConn? That the question NCAAB betting enthusiasts have been asking themselves.  They’ve been the epitome of dominant with their total average scoring margin being +20.6.

UConn goes as Adama Sanogo goes this season. He’s been very dominant down low for the Huskies and leads the team in scoring at 17 PPG and in rebounds at 7.5 per game. Jordan Hawkins is right next to Sanogo in production and makes a great inside-outside combination for the Huskies. Hawkins averages 16 PPG and is one of UConn’s best three-point shooters at 38.6%. He should also be healthy after getting over a bout with food poisoning. Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban are also key pieces on the perimeter for UConn this season. Newton scores 10 PPG and is tied for the lead in assists per game at 5 per game and in steals per game at 1.1 with Andre Jackson Jr. for both. Karaban also averages 9 PPG and is even better at three-point shooting than Hawkins at 40.4% per game. 

UConn is the #1 ranked team in KenPom this season and they’re extremely well-balanced. UConn is 3rd in adjusted offense at 120.6, 30th in scoring offense at 78.6 PPG, and second in point differential at +14.3. The Huskies are also 8th in adjusted defense at 91.3, 34th in points allowed at 64.3 PPG, 10th in rebounding at 39.3 per game, and 20th in blocks at 4.8 per game. 

On the other side, San Diego State has had some magic to this run, highlighted by the buzzer-beater they hit to beat Florida Atlantic last game, but now that they’re here they could just as easily win it.  

The Aztecs are led by Matt Bradley overall, and he leads the team in scoring at 12.7 PPG. Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler help Bradley out in a very experienced backcourt. Trammell averages 10 PPG and is tied for the lead in assists and steals per game at 3 and 1.5 with Lamont Butler. Butler was last game’s hero at the buzzer. He also averages 9 PPG. Jaedon LeDee is the most important player in the frontcourt for the Aztecs, especially in this game. He averages 8 PPG and 5 rebounds per game. 

San Diego State has thrived on defense this year. They’re 14th overall in KenPom this season. They’re 4th in adjusted defense at 90.3 and 25th in points allowed at 63.1 PPG.

This game could get ugly for San Diego State, but expect a close game because of the experience and physicality they can bring to this game and maybe we’ll finally see a close game for UConn and we’ll see how the Huskies react to that.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.

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