49ers, Eagles Losses Inspire “Best Sunday of the Season” for Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks cleaned up against the NFL betting public in NFL Week 6 as the house celebrated its “Best Sunday of the season.”

According to Ben Fawkes, several oddsmakers claimed their largest haul of the 2023 NFL season thanks to several key results, including losses by the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Buffalo Bills also failed to cover a 15-point spread against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football.

This was a harsh reversal in fortune for sports bettors, who had enjoyed a fruitful start to the new football season.

The 49ers and Eagles results were both massive in their own right.

The 49ers entered Sunday with an unblemished record and as the Super Bowl favorites. What started as a 3.5-point line blossomed to 9.5 by kick-off after Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson was ruled out with an injury, leaving backup P.J. Walker in the starting spot. 

Not only did the Browns cover the line at home, but they won outright as Niners kicker Jake Moody missed a 41-yard field goal with nine seconds remaining. Cleveland advanced to 3-2 on the year, while the Niners fell to 5-1.

The Eagles faced a similar fate Sunday. They were seven-point favorites on the road against the New York Jets, but a Jalen Hurts interception with 1:50 on the clock allowed the Jets to set up on a short field and run in an eight-yard touchdown on their first play of the drive.

Philly turned the ball over on downs in its next possession and joined the Niners at 5-1 on the season, while the Jets improved to 3-3.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the 49ers -9.5 and Eagles -7 were the largest public sides of the week with 86% of bets coming in on Cleveland and 84% on Philly.

Those losses also helped free online sportsbooks from the liabilities of parlays and teasers since a massive amount of both bets included the Niners and/or Eagles.

The results could have swung even further in the sportsbooks’ favor had the Giants completed their upset bid against the Bills. They squandered an opportunity on the goal line just before halftime and failed to punch the ball in from the one-yard line on a controversial no-call as time expired.

According to Opta Stats, the Giants were the first team in the Super Bowl era to have more rushing and passing yards, fewer interceptions, fewer fumbles lost, and fewer missed field goals than their opponent, and still lose.

There were no other major upsets, although the Miami Dolphins gave bettors a real scare in their matchup against the winless Carolina Panthers.

Carolina entered as 14.5-point underdogs but found itself up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. They gave up the lead but were in position to cover thanks to a fourth-quarter pick-six but allowed the Dolphins to march down the field and score with 2:31 remaining, putting the score at 42-21. They turned the ball over on downs the next possession and didn’t get the ball back.

The under went 12-2 in Week 6 pending the result of Monday Night Football. That means the under is now 55-37 (59.8%) through six weeks of football in the NFL.

Public sides (betting lines with at least 51% of bets) were also 44-27-3 (62%) against the spread entering the week. The public impressively went 11-3 over the weekend, improving the season mark to 55-30-3 (64.7%).

Many sportsbooks have been reeling from the public’s red-hot start to the season, which is why the Niners and Eagles losses were so important—especially for parlays.

According to VSiN, “the house wins 30 cents on every dollar wagered on parlays” and “[the house] only win[s] 5 cents on every dollar wagered on individual sport bets.” So even though the public nailed a majority of its spreads, the blown parlays allowed the sportsbooks to recover some of their losses.