Below are the top three teams against the run line in 2023. We have combed through each team's record, home & away splits, and what to expect from them in the future. This list can help you improve your odds of winning MLB run line bets and boost your overall profits.
While nothing is ever guaranteed, here are the three safest run line bets in the MLB so far this season.
#1 Washington Nationals (RL Record: 26-15)
The Nationals own the best run line record in 2023, showing that success in this category does not always reflect overall success in the league. The Nationals are currently last in the AL East, with a record of 18-24. They haven’t looked great this year, even in their wins. While the own a -21 run differential, their run-line record shows that they are losing a lot of close games that result in covering the 1.5 run spread.
While their run-line record makes them a safe bet, it does not make them a valuable one. The Nationals are the only MLB team this season to not be favored in a single game. That means each run line win came as an underdog, which doesn't offer much value. While they will likely be favored when their schedule gets a bit easier, it doesn’t mean they’ll any more valuable to bet. As a result, we recommend using Nationals run line bets for parlays that need an extra leg instead of as a single bet.
#2 Baltimore Orioles (RL Record: 26-16)
The Orioles shocked a lot of experts by beginning the season with a 27-15 record, giving them the second-highest winning percentage in the league. Like Washington, they have been far better against the run line on the road this season. That is primarily due to their schedule, as they have had road series against the Royals, Tigers, Nationals, and White Sox. Baltimore also benefited early in the season as online sportsbooks (and baseball experts) struggled to gauge their talent level.
Unlike the Nationals, the Orioles run line bets provide much better value. They have the second-highest cover percentage as a favorite (58.3%), meaning they have a much higher ROI. However, their success has come from a heavy AL-Central schedule early. Baltimore has gone 10-3 against those teams while going 6-6 against their division rivals in the AL East. Considering they will face AL East teams much more as the season goes, their overall and run-line records may both be in for a slow decline.
#3 Texas Rangers (RL Record: 26-16)
The Rangers came into 2023 with mediocre expectations, but they have now established themselves as one of the top teams in the league. Their run line record matches their overall record, both of which are top five in the league. Their pitching is questionable, but their potent offense is leading to plenty of blowout wins this season. That is a trend that should continue as they welcome back star Corey Seager back from injury.
The Ranger's offense has helped them post a +88-run differential, the second-best in the league. That signals they are winning many games by more than 1.5 runs and make them our favorite bet on this list. The Rangers have the fourth-best cover percentage as a favorite (56.5%), putting them just behind the Orioles. Unlike Baltimore, the Rangers have looked good against their own division, with a 12-4 run line record against them this season. As a result, we expect the Rangers to provide the best combination of reliability and value throughout the season.
