MLB Betting Trends: Who are the MLB’s Safest Run Line Bets in 2023?

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By:
Michael Savio
05/18/2023
News

Highlights

  • The Nationals have the best run line record in 2023
  • The Orioles have the best run line record as a favorite
  • Texas is second in the MLB with a +88 run differential

Any experienced MLB bettor will tell you that run-line bets are the best way to win money betting on baseball. The run-line is baseball's version of a point spread, but it is always set at 1.5 runs. That means you can score incredible odds and make significant profits if you can pick the right teams to wager on. 

We have gone through MLB run-line records in 2023 to establish the top three most reliable teams. We will go through all three to explore why they have succeeded and any trends to watch for going forward.

If you are looking to increase your MLB betting profits, you have come to the right place.

The Top Three MLB Teams Against the Run Line in 2024

Below are the top three teams against the run line in 2023. We have combed through each team's record, home & away splits, and what to expect from them in the future. This list can help you improve your odds of winning MLB run line bets and boost your overall profits.

While nothing is ever guaranteed, here are the three safest run line bets in the MLB so far this season.

#1 Washington Nationals (RL Record: 26-15)

The Nationals own the best run line record in 2023, showing that success in this category does not always reflect overall success in the league. The Nationals are currently last in the AL East, with a record of 18-24. They haven’t looked great this year, even in their wins. While the own a -21 run differential, their run-line record shows that they are losing a lot of close games that result in covering the 1.5 run spread.

While their run-line record makes them a safe bet, it does not make them a valuable one. The Nationals are the only MLB team this season to not be favored in a single game. That means each run line win came as an underdog, which doesn't offer much value. While they will likely be favored when their schedule gets a bit easier, it doesn’t mean they’ll any more valuable to bet. As a result, we recommend using Nationals run line bets for parlays that need an extra leg instead of as a single bet.

#2 Baltimore Orioles (RL Record: 26-16)

The Orioles shocked a lot of experts by beginning the season with a 27-15 record, giving them the second-highest winning percentage in the league. Like Washington, they have been far better against the run line on the road this season. That is primarily due to their schedule, as they have had road series against the Royals, Tigers, Nationals, and White Sox. Baltimore also benefited early in the season as online sportsbooks (and baseball experts) struggled to gauge their talent level. 

Unlike the Nationals, the Orioles run line bets provide much better value. They have the second-highest cover percentage as a favorite (58.3%), meaning they have a much higher ROI. However, their success has come from a heavy AL-Central schedule early. Baltimore has gone 10-3 against those teams while going 6-6 against their division rivals in the AL East. Considering they will face AL East teams much more as the season goes, their overall and run-line records may both be in for a slow decline.

#3 Texas Rangers (RL Record: 26-16)

The Rangers came into 2023 with mediocre expectations, but they have now established themselves as one of the top teams in the league. Their run line record matches their overall record, both of which are top five in the league. Their pitching is questionable, but their potent offense is leading to plenty of blowout wins this season. That is a trend that should continue as they welcome back star Corey Seager back from injury.

The Ranger's offense has helped them post a +88-run differential, the second-best in the league. That signals they are winning many games by more than 1.5 runs and make them our favorite bet on this list. The Rangers have the fourth-best cover percentage as a favorite (56.5%), putting them just behind the Orioles. Unlike Baltimore, the Rangers have looked good against their own division, with a 12-4 run line record against them this season. As a result, we expect the Rangers to provide the best combination of reliability and value throughout the season.

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid. As an adult, Michael started picking games for a small sports betting site and has built it into a career. His experience allows him to provide tips and information to help other bettors improve their game. Michael cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils (his alma mater), and the Ottawa Senators. He specializes in baseball betting but has extensive experience in football, basketball, and hockey. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children or hiking and enjoying the outdoors.