The first game of the divisional round featured the Ravens as 9.5-point favorites against the Houston Texans.
Sportsbooks noted an unprecedented amount of support coming in for the Texans because of their hot hand and because of Lamar Jackson’s playoff shortcomings and struggles to cover large spreads (1-9 ATS since 2020 as a 7+ point favorite). Certain books even boosted the Ravens’ spread to positive odds to encourage bettors to bet them and help offset their liability.
Despite the public riding with the Texans, Vegas got off to a nice start as Baltimore dominated and won 34-10. That was the end of the sportsbooks’ time on top, however.
The Green Bay Packers, the only seventh seed to ever win a playoff game, covered a 9.5-point line on the road against the San Francisco 49ers and helped pay public bettors in a major way. Brock Purdy struggled mightily all night and even gave the Packers a chance to win, but Jordan Love’s interception on the final drive ensured the Niners moved on.
The early game on Sunday pitted the highly-backed Detroit Lions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa, a 6.5-point underdog, lost 31-23 and blew numerous opportunities to cover the spread. They dropped an interception in their end zone which led to the Lions kicking a field goal, missed a 50-yard field goal of their own shortly before halftime, and then failed a two-point conversion with 4:37 remaining.
If any of those events swung in the other direction, the Bucs likely would have covered the spread. Instead, the publicly-supported Lions earned another cover, bringing them to a league-best 13-6 ATS on the year.
The final game of the weekend saw the Chiefs upset the Buffalo Bills in Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game.
Although the Bills received a large share of the spread handle, the Chiefs’ moneyline, valued at positive odds, was also extremely popular and proved to be costly as KC won 27-24.
